Company Intelligence — Overview
Vodacom Tanzania
The normalisation of a fintech-led telco
DSE: VODA · ISIN TZ1996102715 · Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange
~780
Market price · TZS/sh
1,516 bn
FY25 service revenue
90.5 bn
FY25 profit after tax
32.1%
EBITDA margin
0.9×
Net debt / EBITDA
~3.2×
EV / FY26E EBITDA
Subscriber tier
The full 10-section Investment Brief
Full model · valuation · return analysis · recommendation
The analysis — key observations
- Earnings trough the market may see through. A two-year, US$100m modernisation front-loads depreciation; cash is untouched. FY26 reported EPS ~48 vs underlying ~92–100.
- M-Pesa as a fintech rail. TZS 590bn revenue (+29.3%), 38.9% of service revenue; lending, savings & merchant services up ~50% — higher return, lower capital.
- Under-penetrated, fast-formalising market. National mobile-payment value +28.3% to TZS 255tn; smartphone penetration only ~42%.
- Quality at a frontier discount. 0.9× net debt/EBITDA, Vodafone parentage, 50%-of-profit dividend — discounted for thin DSE liquidity, not fundamentals.
The core distortion (HY2026): reported NPAT of TZS 41.7bn vs underlying TZS 99.6bn (+136%) — the gap is TZS 60.6bn of accelerated depreciation in the half. The reported optics and the underlying earnings tell two different stories.
Valuation context — TZS/share (illustrative, educational)
Illustrative valuation exercise for education only — not a price target or recommendation. DCF assumes 22% WACC, 6% terminal growth. Control precedents (5.5–6.5× EV/EBITDA) imply ~1,455–1,690 and are shown only to frame the range.
Market backdrop — Tanzanian digital payments · Bank of Tanzania, CY2025
255 tn
Mobile payment value · TZS · +28.3%
75.8 m
Active mobile-money subs · +24.7%
1.98 m
Agent network · +34.4%
~6%
GDP growth · ~3.3% inflation
Key risks
Regulatory & levy
Mobile-money levy changes can shift transactional volume and ARPU — a live sensitivity for the fintech rail.
Depreciation normalisation
Reported earnings stay depressed until the modernisation programme rolls off; any re-rating depends on the market looking through it.
DSE liquidity
A thin float drives the discount and shapes how the shares trade, independent of fundamentals.