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KCP.

Weekly visual edition · Vol. I · No. 274

The Weekly Brief

Saturday, 3 October 2026

A frozen reading of Tanzania's markets, capital and policy. Figures remain bound to their stated observations; this archive never inherits a newer market tape.

DSE All-Share

4,631.77

As at DSEI · 2 Oct close

Tanzania Share Index

10,255.60

As at TSI · 2 Oct close

USD / TZS

2,639.25

As at BoT mean · 3 Oct sheet

BoT rate

6.25%

As at Central Bank Rate · Q3 2026

USD / TZS in this edition: BoT mean · 3 Oct sheet. Source: Bank of Tanzania daily rates ↗

This edition in 90 seconds

  1. 01Domestic shares fell faster than the wider market
  2. 02Banks fell while industrial share prices rose
  3. 03The 364-day Treasury bill yield fell at the latest auction

The week in review

Domestic shares fell faster than the wider market

Signal

Tanzania’s main share-price measures fell this week. Domestic-company prices fell more than the wider market.

Why it matters

From 25 September to 2 October, domestic shares fell 1.57% and all shares 1.08%. Friday: DSEI 4,631.77, TSI 10,255.60.

What to watch

Industrial shares rose. The main indexes do not describe every company or establish why investors traded.

The visual flagship · seven linked lenses

One week. One market story. Seven ways to test it.

Start with DSEI versus TSI, then test the money, breadth, rates, currency,hypothetical model-book terrain and household transmission chain. Every lens stays frozen to this edition's stated observations.

Did the domestic market and the headline index move together or apart over the covered quarter?

The domestic market against the headline index

As at 2 Oct 2026 · Source: Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange. Exact values and method remain in the static evidence table below.

02 · Turnover concentration

How much traded, and how much did one counter carry?

The week’s money had 5 very different shapes.

As at 2026-10-02
Source: Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange ↗

Session turnover Leading counter shareExplainTurnover concentrationShare of turnover in the leading counterTurnover concentration is the share of total traded value accounted for by one counter or a stated group of counters.How it is calculatedSelected counter turnover ÷ total session turnover × 100.What it does not meanA high share does not establish unusual demand, fair value or repeatable liquidity.Source or method: KCP calculation from DSE traded valueSee it in context →Open the full glossary →Definition only · information and education, not advice

27.87bn shillings traded across 5 sessions, but the darker segment shows why activity and breadth are different questions.

03 · Breadth map

Did the board move with the headline?

9 advanced. 11 declined. The index hid the split.

As at 2026-10-02
Source: DSE verified close history ↗

▲ 9 upExplainDirectional breadthShare of moving counters that advancedDirectional breadth is the share of counters with a price move that advanced rather than declined.How it is calculatedAdvancers ÷ (advancers + decliners). Unchanged and non-trading counters are excluded.What it does not meanIt is not the share of all listed counters, and it says nothing about how much money traded in each name.Source or method: KCP calculation from DSE close countsSee it in context →Open the full glossary →Definition only · information and education, not advice▼ 11 down= 8 unchanged

Only counters with a close inside the weekly window and a prior comparable close enter this map. Names without an in-window print are excluded, not labelled unchanged.

04 · Rates hurdle

What did safe local-currency paper yield?

The short end sat below policy; the 364-day point cleared it.

As at 2026-09-23
Source: Bank of Tanzania ↗

Central Bank Rate6.25%
2026-10-02
91D3.39%
2026-09-23
182D5.29%
2026-09-23
364D6.29%
2026-09-23

The comparison is a hurdle-rate lens, not a ranking or recommendation. Tenor, duration, liquidity and reinvestment remain different across the instruments shown.

05 · Local vs hard currency

What remained after translating the week through USD/TZS?

A softer shilling reduced, but did not erase; the index gains.

As at 2026-10-02
Source: DSE and Bank of Tanzania

DSEI

Local-currency index change−1.08%
Mechanical USD translation−0.90%

TSI

Local-currency index change−1.57%
Mechanical USD translation−1.39%

USD/TZS weakened -0.18% over the matched weekly window. The hard-currency line is (1 + local index change) ÷ (1 + FX change) − 1; it is an index translation, not an investable portfolio return, and excludes dividends, costs and tax.

Share prices

Banks fell while industrial share prices rose

Signal

The main share-price measures fell, but industrial shares rose. The week did not move in one direction.

Why it matters

Domestic prices fell 1.57%; all shares fell 1.08%. Banks fell 2.22%, while industrials rose 0.43%. These are price measures, not investor counts.

What to watch

The next verified close tests whether the difference continues. Sector composition can explain different moves without a common market cause.

Source: DSE verified index endpoints, 25 September and 2 October; change = last divided by first minus one. · published 2026-10-02

Go deeper →

Government borrowing

The 364-day Treasury bill yield fell at the latest auction

Signal

The latest verified bill auction remains 23 September. It is an earlier borrowing observation, not a new result this week.

Why it matters

Its 364-day yield was 6.29%, versus 6.47% on 9 September. Yield is the annual rate implied by the price, before saver fees or tax.

What to watch

A later official auction result is needed to describe a new change. The current record does not establish one.

Currency context

The official dollar mean fell slightly in shilling terms

Signal

One United States dollar required slightly fewer shillings on Friday’s official sheet than a week earlier.

Why it matters

The official mean was TZS 2,641.42 on 2 October, against TZS 2,645.45 on 25 September. Customer conversion rates and fees differ.

What to watch

The next dated sheet tests whether the change persists. Currency and share-price moves alone do not establish a shared cause.

Opportunity Wire

Existing cement production and investment discussions are different evidence

Signal

A regional report describes Dangote’s established cement operation in Tanzania alongside investment discussions.

Why it matters

Existing production and proposed projects are different stages. The visible lead does not verify a new Tanzanian funding commitment.

What to watch

A named financing or construction disclosure would clarify a new commitment. Only the article’s visible lead was verified.

Source: theeastafrican.co.ke · published 2026-10-03

Go deeper →

The Ghost · edition context

The model-book allocation read

The hypothetical Ghost model book stood at +17.89% since inception on 2 October 2026. This Modified Dietz result is separate from the share-index moves.

Open the current Ghost tracker →

What this edition watched

  1. Next verified DSE close

    Tests whether domestic and all-share prices continue to differ. It cannot identify investor motives.

    Next official session; date not yet published

  2. Next Treasury bill result

    Allows a like-for-like comparison with the 23 September auction.

    No date stated in the current auction record

  3. Named Tanzanian industrial commitment

    A signed financing or construction disclosure would distinguish discussions from committed capital.

    No date verified

Information and education, not advice or a solicitation. DSE close: 2 October 2026. Weekly index endpoints: 25 September and 2 October. BoT bill auction: 23 September. Weekly currency comparison: 25 September and 2 October; strip: provisional 3 October sheet. Press report: 3 October; only its visible lead was verified. Full-week equity turnover is not established here. Index changes do not establish investor motives. Live updates: Markets.