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Vol. I · No. 217 · Wednesday, 5 August 2026

The Brief

A daily reading of the forces shaping Tanzania's economy, markets and statecraft — and the world that moves them. Information and education, never advice.

DSE All-Share

4,182.69

As at DSEI · 4 Aug close · latest verified

Tanzania Share Index

9,179.14

As at TSI · 4 Aug close · domestic board

USD / TZS

2,643.57

As at BoT mean · 5 Aug sheet

BoT rate

6.25%

As at CBR · Q3 2026

Inflation

4.0%

As at NBS · June 2026 headline

Verified close

Breadth balanced, but CRDB and NMB still carried 73.0% of turnover

Signal

4,182.69 fell 0.11% and 9,179.14 0.23%; TZS 5.059bn traded, with 73.0% in CRDB and NMB.

Why it matters

Twenty-one of 28 names traded and advancers matched decliners at eight each. Participation improved, but the distribution of money remained concentrated.

What to watch

Whether the 5 August verified close preserves balanced breadth while value spreads beyond the two leading banks.

Did the domestic market and the headline index tell the same story over the covered quarter?

The domestic market against the headline index

As at 4 Aug 2026 · Source: Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange. Exact values and method remain in the static evidence table below.

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Tape

Three counters supplied 84.1% of the verified session's turnover

Share of verified equity turnover
  1. CRDBTZS 2.11bn
    41.6% disclosed concentration
  2. NMBTZS 1.59bn
    31.4% disclosed concentration
  3. VodacomTZS 0.56bn
    11% disclosed concentration
  4. Other countersTZS 0.81bn
    15.9% disclosed concentration
Share of verified equity turnover
ObservationDateValue
CRDB2026-08-04TZS 2.11bn
NMB2026-08-04TZS 1.59bn
Vodacom2026-08-04TZS 0.56bn
Other counters2026-08-04TZS 0.81bn

Evidence

CRDB supplied 41.6%, NMB 31.4% and Vodacom 11.0% of TZS 5.059bn in verified equity turnover.

What it means

Twenty-one counters traded, yet the top three supplied 84.1% of value. Counter participation and the distribution of distributable liquidity remained different signals.

Next test

Next scheduled DSE session tests whether turnover broadens

5 Aug 2026 · inferred cadence

The Ghost

The model-book allocation

Visual summary

Book, benchmarks and what moved it

The Ghost's hypothetical TZS 500m model book is +8.16% since inception at its 4 Aug mark. Balanced breadth, concentrated turnover, split rate signals and small two-way FX moves update the risk map — not trades.

Model return+8.07%Modified Dietz · since 6 Jun 2026
Hypothetical NAVTZS 554.7m
Contributed capitalTZS 514m
Market P&L+40.7m

01 · Relative paths

Return since inception

8 Jun 2026–5 Aug 2026

DSEIheadline+6.27%
Ghostmodel+8.07%
TSIdomestic+4.03%

DSEI is the all-share headline; TSI covers domestic companies. They are context, not portfolio equivalents.

02 · Attribution

What moved market P&L

TZS millions

NMB Bank+24.3m
Vodacom Tanzania+18.3m
Income & ballast+2.1m
Tanzania Cigarette−0.1m
CRDB Bank−1.2m
Twiga Cement−2.8m

The bridge reconciles to TZS 40.7m. Savings are capital and never counted as performance.

Tape read: The hypothetical model book ended 4 August at +8.16% since inception. Balanced breadth sits beside concentrated equity turnover, while the interbank-to-bill gap and two-way FX changes keep funding and currency conditions visible. These are educational terrain observations, never positions or recommendations.

Ghost model-book return compared with DSE indices and market P&L attribution
MeasureValuePeriod or unit
DSEI · headline+6.27%8 Jun 2026–5 Aug 2026
Ghost · model+8.07%6 Jun 2026–5 Aug 2026
TSI · domestic+4.03%8 Jun 2026–5 Aug 2026
NMB Bank contribution+24.3mTZS millions
Vodacom Tanzania contribution+18.3mTZS millions
Income & ballast contribution+2.1mTZS millions
Tanzania Cigarette contribution−0.1mTZS millions
CRDB Bank contribution−1.2mTZS millions
Twiga Cement contribution−2.8mTZS millions

What to watch

  1. DSE breadth and turnover distribution

    The 4 August close had eight advancers and eight decliners, but CRDB and NMB still supplied 73.0% of equity turnover.

    after the 5 Aug session

  2. Next verified seven-day IBCM observation

    The 4 August rate was 6.44%, 19bp above the 6.25% CBR and 37bp above the prior observation.

    next BoT dashboard observation

  3. EASEA implementation evidence

    The 50 million-investor goal remains a strategy until a ratified rule change, named pilot or executable cross-listing pipeline appears.

    date not announced

  4. Next official BoT indicative-rate sheet

    The 5 August USD/TZS mean fell 0.10% after a 0.02% rise; the next observation tests whether that reversal extends.

    date not asserted

  5. Next verified BoT Treasury-bill result

    Auction No. 1203 remains the latest verified result, with the 91-day yield about 290bp below the 6.25% CBR.

    date not announced

Compiled from public sources for information and education only — not investment advice, a forecast or a recommendation. Equity, index, breadth and turnover figures reconcile to the DSE verified close (4 Aug 2026); rates and FX use Bank of Tanzania publications, and inflation uses NBS. The current Wire hand-off was read first and contained two primary-grade cards. The EASEA strategy card was retained after primary-source review; its 50 million target is not treated as binding capital or a ratified rule change. The TCC filing card was omitted because its primary PDF exposed no machine-extractable financial figures; no earnings inference is made. The 5 August USD/TZS observation is kept separate from the 4 August DSE close, and the dated interbank and Treasury-bill observations are not presented as a same-day curve. No foreign-flow split is inferred from the official DSE snapshot. Undated checkpoints remain explicitly undated. For live levels see Markets.

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