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KCP.

Weekly visual edition · Vol. I · No. 280

The Weekly Brief

Saturday, 10 October 2026

A frozen reading of Tanzania's markets, capital and policy. Figures remain bound to their stated observations; this archive never inherits a newer market tape.

DSE All-Share

4,597.48

As at DSEI · 9 Oct close · daily change

Tanzania Share Index

10,142.06

As at TSI · 9 Oct close · daily change

USD / TZS

2,630.89

As at BoT mean · 10 Oct sheet

Central Bank Rate

6.25%

As at Bank of Tanzania · Q4 2026 policy

USD / TZS in this edition: BoT mean · 10 Oct sheet. Source: Bank of Tanzania daily rates ↗

This edition in 90 seconds

  1. 01Friday’s rise left share prices lower for the week
  2. 02Friday’s rise did not reverse the weekly decline
  3. 03The one-year bill rate barely moved

The week in review: 5 to 9 October

Friday’s rise left share prices lower for the week

Signal

Share-price measures rose on Friday but ended the week lower. The small rebound did not erase the earlier falls.

Why it matters

From 2 to 9 October, all shares fell 0.74% and domestic shares 1.11%. Friday close: DSEI 4,597.48, TSI 10,142.06.

What to watch

Sector weights offer another explanation for the gap. Separate borrowing, currency and price data do not establish why shares moved.

The visual flagship · seven linked lenses

One week. One market story. Seven ways to test it.

Start with DSEI versus TSI, then test the money, breadth, rates, currency,hypothetical model-book terrain and household transmission chain. Every lens stays frozen to this edition's stated observations.

Close anatomy

Was the market move broadly funded?

9 Oct 2026 verified close

8 of 15 moving counters advanced, while 93.6% of turnover passed through NMB, CRDB, NICO.

Market participation

8 up / 7 down

21 traded counters. Each lit segment is one counter; all three rails use the same scale.

Turnover concentration

93.6% top 3
NMB 46.3%CRDB 43.6%NICO 3.7%Other 6.4%

Largest verified moves

Not the full board
  • TOL+6.36%
  • MBP+6.15%
  • NICO+2.17%
  • MUCOBA-14.44%
  • PAL-4.92%
  • AFRIPRISE-1.39%

Source: Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange

Open this session's DSE report ↗

Index anatomy · Same week

Which shares explain the gap?

2 Oct 2026 to 9 Oct 2026. KCP market-cap decomposition, reconciled to the official index gap.

Index change · %

TSI · domestic−1.11%
DSEI · all−0.74%
−0.37 ppDomestic shares underperformed the full listed market.

Contribution to the index gap · pp

NMB−0.17
CRDB−0.14
TBL−0.03
Others, net−0.02
Official index gap−0.37 pp

NMB, CRDB, TBL have the largest absolute contributions, including offsetting effects. This is not a valuation judgment.

Method and limits

Domestic names: cap change divided by starting domestic cap, minus cap change divided by starting all-market cap. Cross-listed names: subtract the all-market component. KCP checks every company, the implied share basis and each cap-total/index relationship at every retained verified close in the period. This is not official DSE company attribution. Turnover does not enter the calculation. Incompatible basis changes withhold the calculation.

Contributions are rounded; small unallocated residual: 0.000025 pp. No balancing adjustment is applied.

Coverage: 28 companies. KCP classification dated 2026-09-03.

All contributions, percentage points
Sharepp
AFRIPRISE-0.005682
CRDB-0.144917
DCB-0.001065
DSE0.001587
EABL-0.019591
JATU0.000000
JHL0.000000
KA0.000000
KCB0.000000
MBP0.002663
MCB0.004117
MKCB0.002097
MUCOBA-0.002353
NICO0.000000
NMB-0.166457
NMG-0.004681
PAL-0.002663
SWALA0.000000
SWIS0.000000
TBL-0.032748
TCC0.003329
TCCL-0.031793
TOL0.007013
TPCC0.000000
TTP-0.000522
USL0.000000
VODA0.024858
YETU0.000000

02 · Turnover concentration

How much traded, and how much did one counter carry?

The week’s money had 5 very different shapes.

As at 2026-10-09
Source: Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange ↗

Session turnover Leading counter shareExplainTurnover concentrationShare of turnover in the leading counterTurnover concentration is the share of total traded value accounted for by one counter or a stated group of counters.How it is calculatedSelected counter turnover ÷ total session turnover × 100.What it does not meanA high share does not establish unusual demand, fair value or repeatable liquidity.Source or method: KCP calculation from DSE traded valueSee it in context →Open the full glossary →Definition only · information and education, not advice

18.02bn shillings traded across 5 sessions, but the darker segment shows why activity and breadth are different questions.

03 · Breadth map

Did the board move with the headline?

9 advanced. 9 declined. The index hid the split.

As at 2026-10-09
Source: DSE verified close history ↗

▲ 9 upExplainDirectional breadthShare of moving counters that advancedDirectional breadth is the share of counters with a price move that advanced rather than declined.How it is calculatedAdvancers ÷ (advancers + decliners). Unchanged and non-trading counters are excluded.What it does not meanIt is not the share of all listed counters, and it says nothing about how much money traded in each name.Source or method: KCP calculation from DSE close countsSee it in context →Open the full glossary →Definition only · information and education, not advice▼ 9 down= 10 unchanged

Only counters with a close inside the weekly window and a prior comparable close enter this map. Names without an in-window print are excluded, not labelled unchanged.

04 · Rates hurdle

What did safe local-currency paper yield?

The short end sat below policy; the 364-day point cleared it.

As at 2026-10-07
Source: Bank of Tanzania ↗

Central Bank Rate6.25%
2026-10-09
91D3.49%
2026-10-07
182D5.63%
2026-10-07
364D6.28%
2026-10-07

The comparison is a hurdle-rate lens, not a ranking or recommendation. Tenor, duration, liquidity and reinvestment remain different across the instruments shown.

05 · Local vs hard currency

What remained after translating the week through USD/TZS?

A softer shilling reduced, but did not erase; the index gains.

As at 2026-10-09
Source: DSE and Bank of Tanzania

DSEI

Local-currency index change−0.74%
Mechanical USD translation−0.44%

TSI

Local-currency index change−1.11%
Mechanical USD translation−0.81%

USD/TZS weakened -0.30% over the matched weekly window. The hard-currency line is (1 + local index change) ÷ (1 + FX change) − 1; it is an index translation, not an investable portfolio return, and excludes dividends, costs and tax.

Share prices

Friday’s rise did not reverse the weekly decline

Signal

Friday lifted the main share-price measures. They still ended below the previous Friday, and sectors moved differently.

Why it matters

Domestic shares fell 1.11% for the week; all shares 0.74%. Sector weights can explain the gap without one market-wide cause.

What to watch

Commercial services rose 0.68%; banks fell 1.49%. Price changes do not reveal motives or count how many companies rose.

Government borrowing

The one-year bill rate barely moved

Signal

Shorter government borrowing rates rose at Wednesday’s auction. The one-year rate barely changed.

Why it matters

The 364-day yield was 6.2839%, versus 6.2852% on 23 September. Yield is the annualised return implied by the auction price.

What to watch

The 91-day yield rose to 3.4908% from 3.3872%. Auction yields do not establish what a saver receives after fees or tax.

Currency

The official dollar reference used fewer shillings

Signal

One US dollar required fewer shillings in Friday’s official sheet than a week earlier. Customer exchange prices can differ.

Why it matters

The finalized mean fell from TZS 2,641.4186 on 2 October to 2,631.3587 on 9 October. This is a reference, not a customer quote.

What to watch

A shilling share-price change and a dollar-based result differ. Fees, timing and exchange prices affect the conversion.

Cost of living

An unchanged inflation rate still means rising prices

Signal

Mainland prices kept rising at the same annual pace in September. That does not mean the shopping basket became cheaper.

Why it matters

The basket cost 4.3% more than a year earlier; food and non-alcoholic drinks rose 3.9%. The figures measure annual price changes.

What to watch

Whether households have more room to spend also depends on income and what they buy. This report does not measure that.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics, September 2026 consumer-price release, Table 1 · published 2026-10-08

Go deeper →

Opportunity Wire

A mining-levy review is not a verified fee change

Signal

Daily News reported a review of small-scale mining levies on Monday. The retained headline does not establish a new fee.

Why it matters

A levy is a charge paid to the state. If charges change, miners’ costs could change; no revised amount is verified here.

What to watch

A published fee schedule and effective date would establish a change. Full-article details are outside this retained evidence.

Source: dailynews.co.tz · published 2026-10-05

Go deeper →

The Ghost · edition context

The model-book allocation read

The hypothetical Ghost model book recorded +17.64% since inception at the 9 October mark. Its Modified Dietz calculation accounts for contribution timing; it is not a live portfolio or an index return.

Open the current Ghost tracker →

What this edition watched

  1. Next official DSE close

    Shows whether Friday’s rise continues and how sectors differ; it does not reveal investor motives.

    Next verified session; publication time unconfirmed

  2. Next Treasury-bill auction result

    Tests whether shorter maturities and the one-year rate continue to move differently.

    No next date verified in the frozen auction record

  3. Next monthly Mainland consumer-price release

    Separates monthly price changes from the annual inflation comparison.

    Official next date not verified here

  4. Mining levy schedule and effective date

    Would distinguish a reported review from a change in charges paid by small-scale miners.

    Neither verified in the retained headline

Information and education only, not advice or a solicitation. Week: 5 to 9 October 2026. DSE frozen to the verified 9 October close; weekly index changes compare 2 and 9 October. Prose changes are rounded; chart calculations retain four decimal places. Full-week turnover and breadth are not established here. BoT bill auction: 7 October, compared with 23 September. Weekly currency endpoints: finalized 2 and 9 October; strip: provisional 10 October sheet. NBS prices: September 2026, released 8 October, Mainland Tanzania. Daily News mining report: 5 October, headline-only evidence. These separate observations do not establish a shared cause. Live updates: Markets.