DSE All-Share
4,082.43
As at DSEI · 10 Jul close · latest verified
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Permanent edition · Vol. I · No. 193
Sunday, 12 July 2026
A frozen reading of Tanzania's economy, markets and statecraft. Figures remain bound to their stated observations; this archive never inherits a newer market tape.
DSE All-Share
4,082.43
As at DSEI · 10 Jul close · latest verified
USD / TZS
2,634
As at BoT mean · 10 Jul sheet · −7.4% YTD
Gold · $/oz
$4,111
As at BoT ref · 10 Jul mark ≈TZS 10.83m/oz
BoT rate
6.25%
As at CBR · Q3 2026
Inflation
4.2%
As at NBS · May 2026 headline
This edition in 60 seconds
The week ahead
Signal
The market reopens Monday off 4,082.43 — four straight small declines and one TZS 137.7bn CRDB crossing behind it — into a week that carries an expected T-bill auction and Friday's Vision 2050 launch.
Why it matters
Both events speak to the same arithmetic. The auction tells you what a saver can earn risk-free; the launch tells you whether the $1tn ambition has named financing vehicles behind it, or only a podium.
What to watch
Whether the 91-day WAR (3.45%) starts closing the ~280bp gap to the 6.25% CBR, whether June CPI holds the 3–5% band, and whether CRDB's tape normalises once Friday's crossing clears.
Did the domestic market and the headline index tell the same story over the covered quarter?
As at 10 Jul 2026 · Source: Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange. Exact values and method remain in the static evidence table below.
Equities
Signal
Friday's TZS 140.2bn turnover was 98% one CRDB block (TZS 137.7bn, 58.5m shares); every other session in the week ran TZS 4–9bn. Breadth was negative all week — 7 counters up, 16 down.
Why it matters
A single crossing can flatter a week's liquidity and tell you nothing about demand. The honest read of next week's tape is board turnover excluding blocks, and whether breadth turns.
What to watch
Whether a second CRDB tranche follows, and whether bank breadth reasserts at ordinary (non-block) turnover.
Rates
Signal
The last auction (No. 1202, 2 Jul) left the 91-day WAR at 3.45%, the 182-day at 4.70% and the 364-day at 7.12%, against a CBR of 6.25%. BoT's observed cadence points to the next auction around 16 Jul — an inferred date, not an official BoT calendar entry.
Why it matters
A policy rate the short bill ignores is a policy rate that isn't transmitting. The 364-day already clears the CBR; the 91-day does not. Which end moves next is the week's most decision-relevant print.
What to watch
Whether the 91-day WAR steps toward 6.25%, and whether the 364-day holds above 7%.
Macro
Signal
May headline inflation printed 4.2% (April 4.0%). The June print is due mid-month.
Why it matters
It is the first month in which both the fuel-subsidy exit and the 2 Jul CBR move can show up. A print that holds inside the 3–5% band supports the current policy posture; one that doesn't reframes the rates conversation.
What to watch
The headline number against the 3–5% band, and food vs energy contribution.
Source: NBS · first seen 2026-07-12
Go deeper →Policy
Signal
Dira 2050 launches in Dodoma on 17 Jul: a $1tn-economy, $7,000-per-capita ambition across nine priority sectors, with the first five-year tranche funded at TZS 12.50tn and donor grants set to fall ~39%.
Why it matters
With grants shrinking, the path leans on mobilising private and external capital. The market-relevant content of the launch is which flagship projects — LNG-Lindi foremost — leave the podium with named vehicles and co-investors.
What to watch
Named financing vehicles, investment MoUs signed around 17 Jul, and any listed-sector read-through (banks, cement, energy).
Source: Open-source reporting · first seen 2026-07-12
Go deeper →FX / Gold
Signal
USD/TZS closed the week at 2,634.46 on BoT's 10 Jul sheet, easing 0.19% on the week; gold's BoT reference mark sat near $4,111/oz.
Why it matters
A 0.19% weekly drift changes nothing for a local saver and everything for a hard-currency one: it is subtracted from every TZS return before it reaches a diaspora reader.
What to watch
Whether the drift persists through the Vision 2050 week, and whether BoT's gold-reserve accumulation keeps supporting the currency story.
Source: BoT · first seen 2026-07-12
Go deeper →The Ghost · edition context
The Ghost's hypothetical TZS 500m model book is +4.12% since inception. Its largest equity model-book allocation is a bank, so the week's two dated events — the auction (the hurdle a bank must beat) and the launch (the credit demand it might fund) — are the terrain it reads most closely.
Open the current Ghost tracker →What this edition watched
DSE reopens — CRDB follow-through
Whether Friday's TZS 137.7bn crossing draws a second tranche, and whether board turnover and breadth normalise once it clears.
Mon 13 Jul 2026
T-bill auction No. 1203 (expected)
The pass-through test: does the 91-day WAR (3.45%) start closing the ~280bp gap to the 6.25% CBR, and does the 364-day hold above 7%?
~Thu 16 Jul 2026 (inferred cadence, not an official BoT calendar date)
June CPI print
First clean read on the fuel-subsidy exit and the 2 Jul hike; the 3–5% band is the test.
~mid-Jul 2026
Vision 2050 (Dira 2050) launch, Dodoma
Which flagship projects get named financing vehicles and private co-investors — the week's set-piece.
Fri 17 Jul 2026
Week-ahead edition — a forward framing of Mon 13 – Fri 17 Jul, frozen to the Friday official close (10 Jul 2026). Compiled from open-source reporting for information and education only — not investment advice, and not a forecast. Equity and index figures reconcile to the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange verified close (10 Jul 2026); rates, FX and gold to the Bank of Tanzania; inflation to the NBS. Dated events are published only where the date is verified; the ~16 Jul auction is an inferred cadence, not an official calendar entry. For live market updates see Markets.