DSE All-Share
4,082.43
As at DSEI · 10 Jul close · latest verified
Permanent edition · Vol. I · No. 193
The Brief
Sunday, 12 July 2026
A frozen reading of Tanzania's markets, capital and policy. Figures remain bound to their stated observations; this archive never inherits a newer market tape.
USD / TZS
2,634
As at BoT mean · 10 Jul sheet · −7.4% YTD
Gold · $/oz
$4,111
As at BoT ref · 10 Jul mark ≈TZS 10.83m/oz
BoT rate
6.25%
As at CBR · Q3 2026
Inflation
4.2%
As at NBS · May 2026 headline
This edition in 60 seconds
- 01Two dated events, one question: what the hurdle rate is, and who pays for the ambition
- 02Monday's test: does the tape normalise once the CRDB crossing clears?
- 03The pass-through test: an auction is expected mid-week, and the front end is still ~280bp below policy
The week ahead
Two dated events, one question: what the hurdle rate is, and who pays for the ambition
Signal
The market reopens Monday off 4,082.43; four straight small declines and one TZS 137.7bn CRDB crossing behind it; into a week that carries an expected T-bill auction and Friday's Vision 2050 launch.
Why it matters
Both events speak to the same arithmetic. The auction tells you what a saver can earn risk-free; the launch tells you whether the $1tn ambition has named financing vehicles behind it, or only a podium.
What to watch
Whether the 91-day WAR (3.45%) starts closing the ~280bp gap to the 6.25% CBR, whether June CPI holds the 3 to 5% band, and whether CRDB's tape normalises once Friday's crossing clears.
Did the domestic market and the headline index move together or apart over the covered quarter?
The domestic market against the headline index
As at 10 Jul 2026 · Source: Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange. Exact values and method remain in the static evidence table below.
Equities
Monday's test: does the tape normalise once the CRDB crossing clears?
Signal
Friday's TZS 140.2bn turnover was 98% one CRDB block (TZS 137.7bn, 58.5m shares); every other session in the week ran TZS 4 to 9bn. Breadth was negative all week; 7 counters up, 16 down.
Why it matters
A single crossing can flatter a week's liquidity and tell you nothing about demand. The honest read of next week's tape is board turnover excluding blocks, and whether breadth turns.
What to watch
Whether a second CRDB tranche follows, and whether bank breadth reasserts at ordinary (non-block) turnover.
Rates
The pass-through test: an auction is expected mid-week, and the front end is still ~280bp below policy
Signal
The last auction (No. 1202, 2 Jul) left the 91-day WAR at 3.45%, the 182-day at 4.70% and the 364-day at 7.12%, against a CBR of 6.25%. BoT's observed cadence points to the next auction around 16 Jul; an inferred date, not an official BoT calendar entry.
Why it matters
A policy rate the short bill ignores is a policy rate that isn't transmitting. The 364-day already clears the CBR; the 91-day does not. Which end moves next is the week's most decision-relevant print.
What to watch
Whether the 91-day WAR steps toward 6.25%, and whether the 364-day holds above 7%.
Macro
June CPI is the first clean read on the fuel-subsidy exit and the 50bp hike
Signal
May headline inflation printed 4.2% (April 4.0%). The June print is due mid-month.
Why it matters
It is the first month in which both the fuel-subsidy exit and the 2 Jul CBR move can show up. A print that holds inside the 3 to 5% band supports the current policy posture; one that doesn't reframes the rates conversation.
What to watch
The headline number against the 3 to 5% band, and food vs energy contribution.
Source: NBS · first seen 2026-07-12
Go deeper →Policy
Vision 2050 launches Friday; read the financing, not the target
Signal
Dira 2050 launches in Dodoma on 17 Jul: a $1tn-economy, $7,000-per-capita ambition across nine priority sectors, with the first five-year tranche funded at TZS 12.50tn and donor grants set to fall ~39%.
Why it matters
With grants shrinking, the path leans on mobilising private and external capital. The market-relevant content of the launch is which flagship projects; LNG-Lindi foremost; leave the podium with named vehicles and co-investors.
What to watch
Named financing vehicles, investment MoUs signed around 17 Jul, and any listed-sector read-through (banks, cement, energy).
Source: Open-source reporting · first seen 2026-07-12
Go deeper →FX / Gold
The shilling's drift is small; but it is the diaspora's whole return story
Signal
USD/TZS closed the week at 2,634.46 on BoT's 10 Jul sheet, easing 0.19% on the week; gold's BoT reference mark sat near $4,111/oz.
Why it matters
A 0.19% weekly drift changes nothing for a local saver and everything for a hard-currency one: it is subtracted from every TZS return before it reaches a diaspora reader.
What to watch
Whether the drift persists through the Vision 2050 week, and whether BoT's gold-reserve accumulation keeps supporting the currency story.
Source: BoT · first seen 2026-07-12
Go deeper →The Ghost · edition context
The model-book allocation read
The Ghost's hypothetical TZS 500m model book is +4.12% since inception. Its largest equity model-book allocation is a bank, so the week's two dated events; the auction (the hurdle a bank must beat) and the launch (the credit demand it might fund); are the terrain it reads most closely.
Open the current Ghost tracker →What this edition watched
DSE reopens; CRDB follow-through
Whether Friday's TZS 137.7bn crossing draws a second tranche, and whether board turnover and breadth normalise once it clears.
Mon 13 Jul 2026
T-bill auction No. 1203 (expected)
The pass-through test: does the 91-day WAR (3.45%) start closing the ~280bp gap to the 6.25% CBR, and does the 364-day hold above 7%?
~Thu 16 Jul 2026 (inferred cadence, not an official BoT calendar date)
June CPI print
First clean read on the fuel-subsidy exit and the 2 Jul hike; the 3 to 5% band is the test.
~mid-Jul 2026
Vision 2050 (Dira 2050) launch, Dodoma
Which flagship projects get named financing vehicles and private co-investors; the week's set-piece.
Fri 17 Jul 2026
Week-ahead edition; a forward framing of Mon 13 to Fri 17 Jul, frozen to the Friday official close (10 Jul 2026). Compiled from open-source reporting for information and education only; not investment advice, and not a forecast. Equity and index figures reconcile to the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange verified close (10 Jul 2026); rates, FX and gold to the Bank of Tanzania; inflation to the NBS. Dated events are published only where the date is verified; the ~16 Jul auction is an inferred cadence, not an official calendar entry. For live market updates see Markets.