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KCP.

The Brief · Tuesday, 13 October 2026 · Vol. I · No. 282

Indices rose, with trading concentrated in two banks

The main share-price measures rose on Monday, while the value traded fell. CRDB and NMB accounted for most of that trading.

Covers 12 Oct 2026 verified close · Published 2026-10-13 · Read the lead · Soma kwa Kiswahili

The edition’s key figures

This edition in 60 seconds

  1. Market recordIndices rose, with trading concentrated in two banksRead →
  2. Capital recordAcross Tanzania’s marketsRead →
  3. Monday’s verified closeTwo banks accounted for most share tradingRead →
  4. Opportunity WireCompensation pays residents before port constructionRead →

The lead · 12 Oct 2026 verified close

Indices rose, with trading concentrated in two banks

Signal

The main share-price measures rose on Monday, while the value traded fell. CRDB and NMB accounted for most of that trading.

The evidence

DSEI closed at 4,617.77, up 0.44%, and TSI at 10,183.32, up 0.41%, on 12 October. Equity turnover fell 7.1% from Friday.

What to watch

Two banks accounted for 93.4% of equity turnover. Weighted price changes and the value traded do not explain investors’ motives.

Close anatomy · 2026-10-12

Was the session’s fall broadly shared?

How widely did prices move?

10 rose · 6 fell

10 rose · 6 fell · 5 unchanged

21 of 28 listed shares traded; 7 had no trades.

DSE · 2026-10-12

Where did the money trade?

95.1% in three shares

CRDB 73.7% · NMB 19.7% · KCB 1.7% · Others 4.9%

Share of equity turnover: TZS 3.57bn.

DSE · 2026-10-12
Largest rises
TCCL+7.63%
PAL+5.17%
Largest falls, traded shares
MCB-2.60%
TOL-2.17%
NICO-1.86%

Index anatomy · Consecutive closes

Which shares explain the gap?

9 Oct 2026 to 12 Oct 2026. KCP market-cap decomposition, reconciled to the official index gap.

Index change · %

TSI · domestic+0.41%
DSEI · all+0.44%
−0.03 ppDomestic shares underperformed the full listed market.

Contribution to the index gap · pp

KA−0.14
TCCL+0.06
NMB+0.06
Others, net−0.01
Official index gap−0.03 pp

KA, TCCL, NMB have the largest absolute contributions, including offsetting effects. This is not a valuation judgment.

Method and limits

Domestic names: cap change divided by starting domestic cap, minus cap change divided by starting all-market cap. Cross-listed names: subtract the all-market component. KCP checks every company, the implied share basis and each cap-total/index relationship at every retained verified close in the period. This is not official DSE company attribution. Turnover does not enter the calculation. Incompatible basis changes withhold the calculation.

Contributions are rounded; small unallocated residual: 0.000061 pp. No balancing adjustment is applied.

Coverage: 28 companies. KCP classification dated 2026-09-03.

All contributions, percentage points
Sharepp
AFRIPRISE0.001663
CRDB-0.029552
DCB0.000000
DSE0.000543
EABL-0.019712
JATU0.000000
JHL0.000000
KA-0.141776
KCB0.000000
MBP0.000000
MCB-0.002795
MKCB0.001595
MUCOBA0.000000
NICO-0.004876
NMB0.056569
NMG0.000000
PAL0.002715
SWALA0.000000
SWIS-0.001629
TBL0.003338
TCC0.012445
TCCL0.062668
TOL-0.002602
TPCC0.002036
TTP-0.000543
USL0.000000
VODA0.025343
YETU0.000000

Capital System Pulse

Across Tanzania’s markets

Six readings, each with its own date. Price and NAV changes do not establish capital flows.

Which ETF grew faster?

IEACLC +11.5%

DSE closing-price change, 2026-07-13 to 2026-10-12. VIS −3.0%. Not total return.

Monday’s verified close

Two banks accounted for most share trading

Signal

The main share-price measures rose on Monday, while the value traded fell. Most trading went through CRDB and NMB.

Evidence

Equity turnover was TZS 3.57 billion, 7.1% below Friday. CRDB and NMB accounted for 93.4%. DSEI rose 0.44%; TSI rose 0.41%.

What to watch

The value traded and weighted price changes measure different things. These figures do not establish why investors traded or how many companies rose.

Opportunity Wire

Compensation pays residents before port construction

Signal

Daily News reports TZS 49 billion in compensation for residents relocating for Bagamoyo Port. This pays residents, not port construction.

Why it matters

The report attributes the cumulative payment to a Tanzania Ports Authority official. It says land acquisition is complete and channel-contractor procurement preparations continue.

What to watch

A construction financing agreement or contractor award would clarify the next step. The compensation report establishes neither; no verified construction date is available.

Environmental funding

An initial allocation differs from potential extra funds

Signal

Daily News reports an initial environmental-funding allocation and possible additional funds. Its roughly US$41 million headline is not verified cash received.

Why it matters

The report quotes the Vice-President’s Office: US$16.04 million initially allocated under the Global Environment Facility’s ninth funding cycle, plus possible access to US$20 million and US$5 million.

What to watch

Approved project terms and disbursement records would show recipients, conditions and payments. The reported initial allocation and possible additions have different certainty.

What to watch

The next tests, without prediction

  1. Next verified DSE close

    Tests how share-price measures and trading concentration change from the 12 October session.

    Next official session; publication time unconfirmed

  2. Bagamoyo construction financing or contractor award

    Distinguishes compensation and procurement preparation from funded construction.

    No verified date in the 12 October report

  3. Environmental project approval and disbursement

    Tests which reported allocations become approved projects and actual payments.

    No verified date in the 12 October report

Editor’s note

I distinguish Monday’s share-price changes from the value traded, and reported compensation from construction finance. I attribute the port and environmental-funding claims to Daily News. An initial funding allocation differs from possible additional access, and neither verifies cash received. I have not treated reported preparation steps as dated construction milestones.

Information and education only, not advice or a forecast. DSE close: 12 October 2026. Other observations retain their own source dates.