Chunguza Muhtasari, Baada ya Kengele, The Ghost, Data Insights pamoja na ripoti na taarifa za vyanzo. Utafiti unapatikana kupitia ukurasa wake wa wazi. Uchambuzi wa kwanza wa KCP unaeleza matokeo na umuhimu wake. Rekodi za chanzo pekee zinafungua hati rasmi moja kwa moja.
The model book fell 0.90% to TSh 612.41m, the largest weekly fall this ledger records, while the All-Share fell 1.08% on turnover that barely moved. The single-name cap published on 1 October was never close to binding in its first week: the largest model-book equity allocation fell 4.23% and its weight dropped from 19.26% to 18.61% on price alone, and the cap binds only on new savings, none of which arrive before 1 November. Two disclosures about this book’s own bookkeeping: October’s TSh 7.0m of savings is not yet recorded in the tracker, and when it is, the money-weighted return will move by two thousandths of a percentage point; because a deposit is not a gain. Held; nothing trimmed, nothing sold. · EN
The Ghost proposes TZS 7m of new savings for October, pending ledger reconciliation, and the proposal owes two answers. Three chapters dated a single-name equity cap to today, and the bill curve has now asked the same duration question five auctions running. Both get decided here, and both get the same answer shape: a rule that governs where new money goes, and never forces a sale of what the book already owns. The proposal directs savings to the ballast and none to equities. It is allocation reasoning, not a recorded October contribution. · EN
Equity turnover fell 48.2% to TZS 27.471bn, and the market went up anyway: the domestic index rose 2.49%, the banking index 3.44%, and 12 of 28 counters closed higher against 5 a week ago. The model book marked its highest reading yet, TSh 620.28m on Tuesday, gave a little back and closed the week at TSh 617.96m; a money-weighted +19.00% since inception, all of it market P&L. The top two equity allocations are now 36.5% of the book, more concentrated for a third straight week. Held a twelfth week; the single-name cap keeps its 1 October date. · EN
Seven days after the Ghost dated a single-name cap for 1 October, the largest model-book equity allocation fell 5.48% and its weight dropped from 20.2% back to 19.0% without a single decision being taken. The same counter supplied 66.0% of the week’s entire market turnover while it fell. Vodacom rose 9.91% and cancelled almost the whole of it, so a week in which 15 of 28 counters fell left the book about TSh 1.0m better off. Held an eleventh week, and the cap keeps its date. · EN
Last week four of five holdings rose and the book still lost money, while the hypothetical NAV went up on a deposit. This week is the mirror: all five equity holdings rose, nothing was contributed, and model market P&L gained about TSh 21.5m. The two indices swapped places for the same reason they split last week, and the book’s largest equity allocation passed 20% for the first time. The Ghost holds a tenth week, and gives the single-name cap question a date instead of another postponement. · EN
Five verified sessions this time, and the comparison the last chapter had to withhold is back. It says two things that sit awkwardly together. The All-Share rose 1.78% while the domestic Tanzania Share Index fell 0.98%; and inside the model book, four of five equity holdings rose or held flat while the book still gave back about TSh 3.3m of market P&L. The hypothetical NAV went up anyway, because September's savings landed on Monday. Both of those are true, and only one of them is performance. The Ghost holds a ninth week. · EN
The Ghost adds TZS 7m of new savings this month. Last month it walked away from the whole Treasury-bill sleeve because the front end paid less than inflation. The auction sheet says that was half right: the 91-day rung still lends below inflation, but the 364-day rung on the same sheet pays a real yield. So the ladder comes back, higher up. Equities get nothing for a second month running, and this note explains why that is a decision rather than an omission. · EN
Friday's index levels are official. The week's index return is not available, and this note will not print one: NMB's one-for-ten subdivision took effect on 24 August, the series carries an inconsistent 26 August row, and no verified 25 August equity session exists in the snapshot this note reads. Inside the model book the arithmetic still works, and it says something uncomfortable: three of five equity holdings rose, and one of them supplied roughly 93% of the week's equity mark change. The Ghost holds an eighth week. · EN
Both indices rose and five sessions traded TZS 30.05bn; more money than last week; yet the leading counter still absorbed between 49% and 76% of every session's value. Inside the model book the pattern inverted: four of five equity holdings contributed, and the largest single contributor supplied about 49% of the week's equity move against 92% a week earlier. And after four weeks of silence, the Treasury-bill curve finally printed. The Ghost holds a seventh week. · EN
Five sessions traded TZS 25.77bn between them, and NMB plus CRDB supplied 85.4% of it. The model book's own week rhymed: it added about TSh 1.8m, and roughly 92% of that came from one holding. Two weeks running, the concentration is the story; in the market and in the book. The Ghost holds a sixth week, and this time the curve finally gave it something new to read. · EN
Across the eight sessions since the last note, 14 of the 19 priced counters fell; and the model book still had its strongest week since inception. Roughly 85% of that gain came from one holding. A number that good, from a market that narrow, is a reason to look harder, not to add. The book holds a fifth week, and writes down a date it will not be surprised by: NMB's one-for-ten subdivision, effective 24 August. · EN
The Ghost adds TZS 7m of new savings this month. Its engine has run hard; its ballast has not. Before deciding, it reads drift against the mandate bands, what four straight weeks of holding taught it, and what the rate tape is actually paying. The split is the conclusion of that reasoning; including the decision to send equities none of it. · EN
The All-Share closed the week at an all-time high; but more names fell than rose, and Friday's push came largely from cross-listed counters marked up on zero reported volume. The book's banks sat still all week. A record the board didn't earn with breadth or turnover is a headline, not a thesis; so the book holds, a fourth week running. · EN
The index clawed back almost all of its early-July dip and closed within a whisker of its record; but more names fell than rose, and the banks did the carrying. The book's largest model-book equity allocation is a bank, so it rode the move without lifting a finger. A tape that only confirms what you already own is not a reason to add to it. · EN
Last week it was three record closes in a row and the Ghost did nothing. This week the tape gave a little of that back, the banks split in two directions; and the answer is the same. Holding through a give-back is the same discipline as holding through a rally: the book moves on a thesis, not on the tape's mood. · EN
Three record closes in a row, and the Ghost's answer is to do nothing. Not because nothing happened; plenty did; but because nothing that happened changed what the book should hold. This is the chapter about why "hold" is a decision, made on purpose. · EN
The Ghost adds TZS 7m of new savings this month. Before deciding where it goes, it reads the board: drift against the bands, what the journey has taught, and what the macro tape is saying. The split is the conclusion of that reasoning, not the start of it. · EN
The Ghost trims cash to open its first commodity position; a small, notional gold sleeve. Not a momentum trade: a reserve, in the metal that underwrites the shilling. · EN