Five rose, fourteen fell — and the book had its best week

From the last note's mark to this one — 24 July to 3 August — the All-Share rose 0.89% to 4,187.22 and the domestic Tanzania Share Index rose 2.36% to 9,200.17 (DSE, 3 Aug close). Underneath those two green numbers, five counters rose and fourteen fell. Decliners beat advancers in every single session of the stretch — 27 July through 3 August, six for six. The All-Share set a record of 4,194.87 on 30 July and has since eased 0.18% off it.

Turnover told the same story from the other side. On 31 July, TSh 30.46bn traded and TBL alone was 78.1% of it; on 3 August, TSh 7.10bn traded and CRDB plus NMB were 94.3%. Money arrived. It went to two or three doors.

The model book's own week reads exactly like the market's. Vodacom went from TSh 825 to TSh 1,000 (+21.2%) — and unlike the zero-volume cross-listed prints that made July's record, this one was funded: 203,701 shares changed hands on 3 August alone. NMB added 4.90% to TSh 17,570, printing a fresh 52-week high of TSh 17,580 on 31 July. Against them, CRDB eased 3.35% to TSh 2,600, Twiga (TPCC) fell 5.52% to TSh 5,820, and TCC was near-flat at TSh 12,300. Every mark reconciles to the verified DSE close.

The book ended at TSh 554.6m, +8.06% money-weighted since inception on 6 June, against TSh 514.0m of contributed capital. That is the strongest week the book has had. It is also the week it should be most careful about: of roughly TSh 17.2m of model P&L added since the last note, about 85% came from Vodacom alone. Deposits — including the TSh 7m added on 1 August — are capital, never performance.

NMB filed H1-2026 group results on 3 August: net profit after tax TZS 405.8bn, up 13% year on year from TZS 358.6bn, with total assets at TZS 18.4tn (+26% YoY). That is the earnings base under the book's largest equity allocation, and it is intact. CRDB filed its quarterly report for the period ended 30 June on 30 July, and TCC filed on 3 August — but the text of both filings was not machine-extractable, so this note carries no figures from them. An unreadable filing is not a bad result; it is simply not a number yet, and the book would rather say so than estimate one.

The uncomfortable one: Tanga Cement (TCCL) posted Q2 revenue up 10% quarter on quarter to TZS 79.4bn, operating profit up 19% to TZS 14.6bn, and quarterly group net profit of TZS 9.4bn against TZS 3.8bn — and its share price rose 39.1% over the same stretch the book's cement holding, Twiga, fell 5.52%. The Ghost owns the one that fell and not the one that rose. Conviction cuts both ways, and it cut this way this week. That is worth writing down plainly rather than quietly leaving out of a week the headline number flattered.

One more observation, offered as a fact rather than a diagnosis: the largest decline on the board over the stretch was MCB, from TSh 660 to TSh 285 (−56.8%), sliding in every session. No issuer filing explaining it appeared in the window this note reads. The book holds none of it, and the reason it holds none of it is the same reason it will not guess at a cause here: it cannot source one.

The first four holds were holds of patience: nothing had changed. This one is a hold of discipline: something did change, and it changed in the book's favour, which is precisely when a model book is most tempted to confuse luck with skill and add to what just worked.

Three things argue against acting. Every sleeve sits mid-band, so there is no drift to correct. The one dated thesis on the table — extending duration while the 364-day sits above 7% and the front end is pinned below inflation — still waits on an auction result that has not published in the series the book reads, and a thesis without new evidence is not a decision, it is an itch. And the week's gain was a single name doing 85% of the work, which is an argument for examining concentration, not for feeding it. Nothing was bought, nothing was sold.

NMB has an approved one-for-ten share subdivision, effective 24 August 2026 (issuer notice, approved 24 July, announced 27 July). The published calendar runs: 19 August last cum-split trading day, 20–21 August trading suspension, 21 August register closure, 21–23 August register update, 24 August effective and trading resumes on the new basis. A subdivision multiplies the share count and divides the per-share price by the same factor: it changes the units, not the value, and not any holder's proportional ownership.

Saying so now matters for one practical reason. When the new basis takes effect, the model book's NMB mark will step from a ~TSh 17,000-order price to a ~TSh 1,700-order price on a single day. That is a mechanical basis break, not a loss — it will be labelled as one when it happens, and the book is flagging it three weeks early so nobody has to work that out from a chart.

Otherwise the discipline is unchanged: watch whether the next bill auction reconnects the front end toward the 6.25% policy rate; watch whether breadth and turnover broaden past two banks; and hold what the thesis owns until something other than a good week argues otherwise.

— The Ghost. Hypothetical and educational only — a model book, not real money, and never advice.