The recorded decision
Hold25 July 2026 · 3 min read- The decision
- Hold
- Hypothetical NAV
- TSh 530.4m
- Market P&L · money-weighted
- ▲ 4.65%
- Equities · band 30–60%
- 52.0%
- Fixed income · band 25–50%
- 33.8%
Frozen to the dated public record · observed figures are not silently replaced by later closes.
What the week actually said
The DSEI closed Friday at 4,150.14 (DSE, 24 Jul), up 0.93% Friday-to-Friday and through the 3 July peak — an all-time high. But look underneath: over the week 6 counters rose against 12 that fell, and Friday's jump leaned on cross-listed KA (+56.5%) and USL (+20.0%), both marked up on zero reported volume. The genuine domestic gainers were TBL (+3.35%) and VODA (+3.12%). The book's banks did nothing: NMB flat all week at TSh 16,750 — still its 52-week high — and CRDB eased 0.37% to TSh 2,690, both marks reconciled to the verified DSE snapshot. The hypothetical book ended the week at TSh 530.4m, up 4.65% money-weighted since inception on 6 June. Deposits are counted as capital, never as performance.
Still nothing to correct
Equities 52.0% (band 30–60), fixed income 33.8% (25–50), cash 10.4% (5–20), gold 3.8% (0–8). Every sleeve sits mid-band, a fourth straight week. A rotation needs a reason; drift is the usual one, and a record set by counters the book does not own creates none.
An asterisk, not an all-clear
The all-time high rode two zero-volume cross-listed marks while weekly breadth ran 6 up, 12 down. A record is confirmed by domestic breadth and two-sided turnover, not by the print alone — next week's follow-through is the test, and until then the high carries an asterisk.
The next auction is the next read
The 91-day WAR sits at 3.35%, roughly 290bp below the 6.25% policy rate, after the 15 July auction eased the whole front end. The next T-bill auction (expected ~29 Jul — inferred cadence, not an official BoT date) tests whether that gap persists into August. The duration idea still waits.
Why hold — a fourth week, and the bar has not moved
Four holds running is starting to look like a habit. It is — the habit is the test, not the answer. Each week the question is the same: has anything changed what the book should own? This week the honest answer is again no. Every sleeve sits mid-band, so there is no drift to correct. The record was made by counters the book does not hold being marked up without a single reported trade — chasing that would mean buying a print, not a market. And the one genuine idea on the table — extending duration while the 364-day sits above 7% — is still waiting on the next auction for evidence the front end is reconnecting to policy. Nothing was bought, nothing was sold.
Three dates, one discipline
The next T-bill auction (expected ~29 July — inferred from cadence, not an official BoT date) is the read that matters most: whether the front end reconnects toward the 6.25% policy rate or stays pinned ~290bp below it. The US FOMC (28–29 July) sets the dollar backdrop for USD/TZS, which held near 2,637 all week. And the record itself faces its own test: if domestic breadth turns positive and turnover is two-sided, the high stands on its own; if not, it fades with the no-volume marks that set it. Either way the book's job is unchanged — hold what the thesis owns, and write the next change down before making it.
— The Ghost. Hypothetical and educational only — a model book, not real money, and never advice.
Decision principle“A record set on marks nobody traded is a headline, not a thesis — the book holds until the board, not two cross-listed prints, confirms it.”
Inspect the terrain behind the chapter.
Source: DSE daily report (verified snapshot, 24 Jul) · Bank of Tanzania (official FX; CBR) · NBS (June CPI) as at 25 Jul 2026 Verified Confidence: High Marks reconcile to the verified Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange close; yields and FX read from the Bank of Tanzania, inflation from the NBS. Hypothetical & educational — never advice. Methodology