DSE All-Share
4,150.14
As at DSEI · 24 Jul close · latest verified
Permanent edition · Vol. I · No. 208
The Brief
Monday, 27 July 2026
A frozen reading of Tanzania's markets, capital and policy. Figures remain bound to their stated observations; this archive never inherits a newer market tape.
USD / TZS
2,640
As at BoT mean · 25 Jul sheet · ~3 TZS weaker on week
Gold · $/oz
$4,047
As at BoT reference · 25 Jul sheet
BoT rate
6.25%
As at CBR · Q3 2026
Inflation
4.0%
As at NBS · June 2026 headline
This edition in 60 seconds
- 01The test week opens: a credit tailwind lands on the banks that sat still through the record
- 02Two flat banks were seventy per cent of the record-day tape
- 03Private-sector credit up 23%; the fundamental the flat bank tape was waiting for
Verified close
The test week opens: a credit tailwind lands on the banks that sat still through the record
Signal
Monday reopens off 4,150.14; Friday's record, set on 8-up/11-down breadth; as BoT data shows private-sector credit up 23% y/y and the FOMC opens Tuesday.
Why it matters
The record's weak point was its own leaders: NMB and CRDB carried about 70% of Friday's TZS 3.61bn tape without moving. A 23% credit expansion is the first fundamental argument the flat bank leadership has been handed in weeks; and the 25 Jul BoT sheet shows the shilling's first visible drift in a month.
What to watch
Whether Monday's board prices the credit story into the banks at two-sided turnover; auction No. 1204's WARs (~29 Jul, inferred); USD/TZS through the 28 to 29 Jul FOMC.
Did the domestic market and the headline index move together or apart over the covered quarter?
The domestic market against the headline index
As at 24 Jul 2026 · Source: Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange. Exact values and method remain in the static evidence table below.
Equities
Two flat banks were seventy per cent of the record-day tape
Signal
Friday's record close at 4,150.14 came on TZS 3.61bn of turnover; NMB (39%) and CRDB (31%) carried it at unchanged prices, and four of the 8 advancers were zero-volume cross-listed marks.
Why it matters
The high was set at the thin edge of the board while the money traded flat in two banks. Monday is the first session that can broaden participation; or leave the record standing as a level the tape has not ratified.
What to watch
Whether turnover spreads beyond the two banks and advancers outnumber decliners at ordinary two-sided volume.
Banking
Private-sector credit up 23%; the fundamental the flat bank tape was waiting for
Signal
Bank of Tanzania data reported via state media shows the private-sector credit stock up 23% year-on-year, three weeks after the CBR rose 50bp to 6.25%.
Why it matters
Lending at that pace is an interest-income tailwind for the largest balance sheets, and it lands on a tape where the two biggest listed lenders closed the record week unchanged. Whether it converts to earnings depends on asset quality; NPLs and margins at the half-year results are the check.
What to watch
NPL ratios and net interest margins in CRDB and NMB half-year results, and whether BoT's next statements address the credit pace.
Source: BoT · Open-source reporting · first seen 2026-07-27
Go deeper →Rates
Auction week meets Fed week: the ~290bp gap gets its print
Signal
The BoT auction list re-checked this morning still shows No. 1203 (15 Jul) as the latest; 91-day at 3.35% against a 6.25% CBR; with No. 1204 expected ~29 Jul, the same week as the FOMC.
Why it matters
The front-end/policy gap has stood untested for two weeks. This week supplies both prints at once; the domestic auction and the US decision, the two rates the shilling and the short end answer to.
What to watch
WARs and bid-to-cover at auction No. 1204, and whether the 10-year holds its 10.87% repricing.
Shilling
First drift in a month: the 25 Jul sheet marks the shilling at 2,639.85
Signal
The 25 Jul BoT sheet shows USD/TZS at 2,639.85; about 2.7 shillings weaker on the week; with the BoT gold reference near $4,047/oz and the FOMC opening Tuesday.
Why it matters
After weeks pinned near 2,636 to 2,637 the drift is small but new, and it lands as forex-conversion rules tighten and the oil channel eases, with Brent reported below $92.
What to watch
Whether the drift extends on post-FOMC sheets, and whether the tightened conversion rules show up in reported forex turnover.
Source: BoT · Open-source reporting · first seen 2026-07-27
Go deeper →The Ghost · edition context
The model-book allocation read
The Ghost's hypothetical TZS 500m model book is +4.65% since inception at its 24 Jul mark. The weekend's 23% credit-growth print is exactly the kind of terrain fact the model book reads against its bank-heavy allocation; system lending accelerating while NMB sits at 16,750 and CRDB at 2,690 is the gap between fundamentals and tape it exists to teach.
Open the current Ghost tracker →What this edition watched
T-bill auction No. 1204 (expected)
The first scheduled print against the ~290bp gap between the 91-day bill and the 6.25% CBR; WARs and bid-to-cover show whether the short end reconnects to policy.
~29 Jul 2026 (inferred cadence, not an official BoT date)
US FOMC decision
The dollar-path event for a shilling that just showed its first visible drift in a month on the 25 Jul BoT sheet.
28 to 29 Jul 2026
CRDB & NMB half-year results
The check on whether 23% system credit growth converts to earnings; NPL ratios and net interest margins are the tells.
expected in the coming weeks (not yet dated)
NBS July CPI · EWURA fuel cap
June's 4.0% headline against 13.6% y/y transport is the divergence the next releases test, with Brent's retreat now easing the pass-through.
early Aug 2026
LSE shilling-bond pricing & Absa to NBC clearance
Where offshore TZS paper prices against the domestic curve (10Y 10.87%) is the market's verdict on post-IMF Tanzania; the BoT's clearance decision resets the sector map beneath CRDB and NMB.
coming weeks
Compiled from public sources for information and education only; not investment advice, and not a forecast. Equity and index figures reconcile to the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange verified close (24 Jul 2026); rates, FX and gold to the Bank of Tanzania; inflation to the NBS. The current Wire hand-off contained no primary-grade candidate, so no unverified headline is promoted as fact; the ~29 Jul auction date is inferred from cadence, not an official calendar entry, and the 23% credit figure is BoT data as reported by state media pending the statistical release. For live market levels see Markets.