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4,150.14
As at DSEI · 24 Jul close · latest verified
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Permanent edition · Vol. I · No. 207
Sunday, 26 July 2026
A frozen reading of Tanzania's economy, markets and statecraft. Figures remain bound to their stated observations; this archive never inherits a newer market tape.
DSE All-Share
4,150.14
As at DSEI · 24 Jul close · latest verified
USD / TZS
2,637
As at BoT mean · 24 Jul sheet · flat on the week
Gold · $/oz
$4,105
As at Tume ya Madini world ref · 24 Jul mark
BoT rate
6.25%
As at CBR · Q3 2026
Inflation
4.0%
As at NBS · June 2026 headline
This edition in 60 seconds
The week ahead
Signal
The market reopens Monday off 4,150.14 — an all-time high set on negative breadth and zero-volume cross-listed marks — into a week carrying T-bill auction No. 1204 (~29 Jul, inferred cadence) and the 28–29 Jul US FOMC.
Why it matters
Last week's record was a level without participation: 6 counters up, 12 down, the banks flat, and most of the ~TZS 25bn tape in three negotiated prints. Unlike the record week itself, this one has scheduled catalysts — the auction is the first print against the ~290bp gap between the 91-day bill and the 6.25% policy rate, and the FOMC is the nearest dated external event behind a shilling that has barely moved in a month.
What to watch
Whether domestic breadth and ordinary two-sided turnover confirm the high; what auction No. 1204's yields and bid-to-cover say about the front-end/policy gap; and whether USD/TZS stays anchored through the FOMC.
Did the domestic market and the headline index tell the same story over the covered quarter?
As at 24 Jul 2026 · Source: Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange. Exact values and method remain in the static evidence table below.
Equities
Signal
4,150.14 enters the week up 0.93% Friday-to-Friday at an all-time high — but the decisive push came from cross-listed KA and USL marked up on no reported volume, weekly breadth was 6 up / 12 down, and 8,988.01 fell on record day.
Why it matters
A high set on zero-volume marks and negotiated blocks is a level, not yet a market. The cleaner tell this week is not whether the record holds but who does the pricing: domestic counters at ordinary turnover, or thin marks at the margin.
What to watch
Whether advancers outnumber decliners at two-sided turnover, and whether bank leadership — NMB flat, CRDB slightly lower last week — returns to the tape.
Rates
Signal
The 91-day WAR sits at 3.35% against a 6.25% CBR, the 364-day at 7.03%, and the 10-year point repriced to 10.87% last week — with the next T-bill auction expected ~29 Jul (inferred cadence, not an official BoT calendar date).
Why it matters
No auction fell in last week's window, so the front-end/policy gap went untested for a fortnight. Auction No. 1204 is the first scheduled repricing event: its WARs and bid-to-cover show whether the short end starts reconnecting to policy or the gap simply persists into August.
What to watch
The 91- and 364-day WARs and bid-to-cover at auction No. 1204, and whether the long end holds its 10.87% repricing.
FX / Gold
Signal
USD/TZS held at 2,637 on BoT's 24 Jul sheet, +0.03% on the week; gold's world reference recovered about 2.0% to $4,105. The 28–29 Jul US FOMC is the week's one dated external event for the dollar backdrop.
Why it matters
A flat shilling is the rare state in which local and hard-currency returns say the same thing. The FOMC is the scheduled event most capable of shifting that backdrop — and gold back above $4,000 restores the reserve-side variable BoT accumulates against.
What to watch
Whether USD/TZS stays anchored through the FOMC decision, and whether gold's world reference holds above $4,000.
Source: BoT · first seen 2026-07-26
Go deeper →Policy
Signal
The $2.7bn Tabora–Kigoma SGR contract remains press-reported without primary confirmation; the IFC's first Tanzanian-shilling bond listed in London and the Sh263bn sovereign offshore listing have put an offshore shilling curve on the tape.
Why it matters
The financing story hardened last week from statutory to transactional. What upgrades it further is primary-source confirmation — contract terms, financing structure, named vehicles — rather than additional headlines; an offshore TZS curve is a pricing reference Tanzanian assets have not had before.
What to watch
Primary confirmation and financing terms for the SGR award, any further named Vision 2050 vehicles, and follow-on issuance against the new offshore shilling reference.
Source: Open-source reporting · first seen 2026-07-26
Go deeper →Macro
Signal
June's headline CPI held at 4.0% — a food story, with core at 3.7% and transport running 13.6% y/y underneath. Nothing on the macro calendar is dated inside Mon 27 – Fri 31 Jul; the July CPI print and the next EWURA fuel cap land early August.
Why it matters
The inflation question this week is positional, not topical: the headline-versus-transport divergence is the thing the early-August releases test, so this week sets the base the next print is read against.
What to watch
Any early signals on the August EWURA cap, and the setup into the NBS July CPI release the following week.
Source: NBS · first seen 2026-07-26
Go deeper →The Ghost · edition context
The Ghost's hypothetical TZS 500m model book is +4.65% since inception at its 24 Jul mark. It enters a two-catalyst week at a record its bank-weighted allocations did not participate in — NMB flat at 16,750, CRDB slightly lower — so the auction's hurdle-rate print and the tape's breadth are the two things the model book reads first.
Open the current Ghost tracker →What this edition watched
T-bill auction No. 1204 (expected)
The first scheduled test of the ~290bp 91-day/CBR gap in a fortnight — the WARs and bid-to-cover show whether the front end starts reconnecting to policy.
~29 Jul 2026 (inferred cadence, not an official BoT calendar date)
US FOMC decision
The week's one dated external event for the dollar backdrop to USD/TZS, which held at 2,637 through last week.
28–29 Jul 2026
The record's follow-through
Friday's all-time high rode zero-volume cross-listed marks on 6-up/12-down breadth — domestic breadth and two-sided turnover decide whether it is confirmed.
week of 27 Jul 2026
Tabora–Kigoma SGR $2.7bn award — primary confirmation
The contract remains press-reported; primary confirmation and financing terms are required before it counts as verified capex.
coming weeks (unscheduled)
NBS July CPI · EWURA fuel cap
The headline-vs-transport divergence (4.0% vs 13.6% y/y) is what the next releases test; this week sets the base they are read against.
early Aug 2026 (just beyond this week)
Week-ahead edition — a forward framing of Mon 27 – Fri 31 Jul, frozen to the Friday official close (24 Jul 2026). Compiled from open-source reporting for information and education only — not investment advice, and not a forecast. Equity and index figures reconcile to the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange verified close (24 Jul 2026); rates, FX and gold to the Bank of Tanzania; inflation to the NBS. Dated events are published only where the date is verified; the ~29 Jul auction is an inferred cadence and the $2.7bn Tabora–Kigoma SGR award is press-reported, neither an official calendar entry. For live market updates see Markets.