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KCP.

Weekly visual edition · Vol. I · No. 220

The Weekly Brief

Saturday, 8 August 2026

A frozen reading of Tanzania's markets, capital and policy. Figures remain bound to their stated observations; this archive never inherits a newer market tape.

DSE All-Share

4,183.38

As at DSEI · 7 Aug close · latest verified

Tanzania Share Index

9,169.71

As at TSI · 7 Aug close · domestic board

USD / TZS

2,644.79

As at BoT mean · 7 Aug sheet

BoT rate

6.25%

As at CBR · Q3 2026

Inflation

4.0%

As at BoT MER · June 2026 headline

USD / TZS in this edition: BoT mean · 7 Aug sheet. Source: Bank of Tanzania daily rates ↗

This edition in 90 seconds

  1. 01The indices eased, two banks carried the money, and private credit accelerated
  2. 02The domestic index lagged the All-Share while Commercial Services moved against the decline
  3. 03TZS 25.77bn traded across five sessions; and NMB plus CRDB supplied 85.4%

The week in review

The indices eased, two banks carried the money, and private credit accelerated

Signal

4,183.38 fell 0.17% Friday-to-Friday and 9,169.71 0.49%; five verified sessions carried TZS 25.77bn of equity turnover.

Why it matters

NMB and CRDB supplied 85.4% of weekly value while six of 19 comparable counters rose; the new BoT review put private-credit growth at 28.1%.

What to watch

Whether turnover broadens beyond the two banks and the next official data separate durable credit depth from one strong monthly reading.

The visual flagship · seven linked lenses

One week. One market story. Seven ways to test it.

Start with DSEI versus TSI, then test the money, breadth, rates, currency,hypothetical model-book terrain and household transmission chain. Every lens stays frozen to this edition's stated observations.

Did the domestic market and the headline index move together or apart over the covered quarter?

The domestic market against the headline index

As at 7 Aug 2026 · Source: Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange. Exact values and method remain in the static evidence table below.

02 · Turnover concentration

How much traded, and how much did one counter carry?

The week’s money had 5 very different shapes.

As at 2026-08-07
Source: Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange ↗

Session turnover Leading counter shareExplainTurnover concentrationShare of turnover in the leading counterTurnover concentration is the share of total traded value accounted for by one counter or a stated group of counters.How it is calculatedSelected counter turnover ÷ total session turnover × 100.What it does not meanA high share does not establish unusual demand, fair value or repeatable liquidity.Source or method: KCP calculation from DSE traded valueSee it in context →Open the full glossary →Definition only · information and education, not advice

25.77bn shillings traded across 5 sessions, but the darker segment shows why activity and breadth are different questions.

03 · Breadth map

Did the board move with the headline?

9 advanced. 11 declined. The index hid the split.

As at 2026-08-07
Source: DSE verified close history ↗

▲ 9 upExplainDirectional breadthShare of moving counters that advancedDirectional breadth is the share of counters with a price move that advanced rather than declined.How it is calculatedAdvancers ÷ (advancers + decliners). Unchanged and non-trading counters are excluded.What it does not meanIt is not the share of all listed counters, and it says nothing about how much money traded in each name.Source or method: KCP calculation from DSE close countsSee it in context →Open the full glossary →Definition only · information and education, not advice▼ 11 down= 8 unchanged

Only counters with a close inside the weekly window and a prior comparable close enter this map. Names without an in-window print are excluded, not labelled unchanged.

04 · Rates hurdle

What did safe local-currency paper yield?

The short end sat below policy; the 364-day point cleared it.

As at 2026-07-15
Source: Bank of Tanzania ↗

Q3 2026 Central Bank Rate6.25%
Observation date unavailable
91D3.35%
2026-07-15
182D4.78%
2026-07-15
Seven-day IBCM6.21%
2026-08-05
364D7.03%
2026-07-15

The comparison is a hurdle-rate lens, not a ranking or recommendation. Tenor, duration, liquidity and reinvestment remain different across the instruments shown.

05 · Local vs hard currency

What remained after translating the week through USD/TZS?

A softer shilling reduced, but did not erase; the index gains.

As at 2026-08-07
Source: DSE and Bank of Tanzania

DSEI

Local-currency index change−0.17%
Mechanical USD translation−0.14%

TSI

Local-currency index change−0.49%
Mechanical USD translation−0.46%

USD/TZS weakened -0.03% over the matched weekly window. The hard-currency line is (1 + local index change) ÷ (1 + FX change) − 1; it is an index translation, not an investable portfolio return, and excludes dividends, costs and tax.

06 · Ghost terrain impact

Which evidence changed the hypothetical model-book risk map?

The week changed the terrain, not the mandate.

As at 2026-08-07
Source: KCP Weekly Brief and stated public authorities

The Ghost is a hypothetical educational model book. This panel explains terrain impact on its model-book allocation; it is not a signal, instruction or recommendation.

07 · Cost-of-living chain

How can currency pressure travel toward the household basket?

Four clocks. One transmission chain. No forecast.

As at 2026-08-07
Source: BoT · EWURA · MIT · NBS

Each link keeps its own authority and observation clock. The layout shows plausible transmission channels; it does not claim that one observation caused the next.

Equities

The domestic index lagged the All-Share while Commercial Services moved against the decline

Signal

4,183.38 fell 0.17% Friday-to-Friday and 9,169.71 0.49%; Industrial & Allied fell 1.96%, Banks 0.28%, while Commercial Services rose 1.86%.

Why it matters

The positive services move did not turn the broader week higher. The split kept sector composition, rather than one headline index, at the centre of the read.

What to watch

What carries forward: whether the next verified week brings DSEI and TSI back into the same direction through broader sector participation.

Money traded

TZS 25.77bn traded across five sessions; and NMB plus CRDB supplied 85.4%

Signal

Verified session turnover was TZS 7.10bn Mon, 5.06bn Tue, 4.53bn Wed, 3.83bn Thu and 5.26bn Fri, summing to TZS 25.77bn.

Why it matters

NMB supplied TZS 11.34bn and CRDB TZS 10.68bn. Friday's TZS 5.26bn was one session inside the total, not a weekly aggregate by itself.

What to watch

What carries forward: whether ordinary value spreads beyond the two banks after their combined share stayed above 73% in every session.

Market under the index

Six of 19 comparable counters rose while the week's extremes stayed far apart

Signal

Friday-to-Friday, six comparable counters rose, nine fell and four were unchanged; MCB gained 51.61% while TCCL fell 14.52%.

Why it matters

The near-flat headline index compressed wide company dispersion. MCB and TOL led the gains; MBP and TCCL recorded the largest declines in the comparable set.

What to watch

What carries forward: whether the extreme counter moves persist with meaningful turnover or breadth gathers around the middle of the board.

Credit transmission

Private-credit growth accelerated while headline and core inflation moved in opposite directions

Signal

BoT's July review put June private-credit growth at 28.1%, up from 23.2% in May; headline inflation eased to 4.0% while core rose to 3.7%.

Why it matters

Faster intermediation arrived without a headline-inflation break, but the core measure moved higher. The composition matters more than any one aggregate.

What to watch

What carries forward: whether the next official monthly review sustains the credit acceleration and clarifies its sector distribution.

External buffer

Reserve cover improved to 4.4 months, one-tenth below the EAC benchmark

Signal

BoT recorded end-June reserves of US$5.6735bn, equal to 4.4 months of projected imports; rolling exports reached US$19.9236bn, up 17.2% year on year.

Why it matters

The buffer cleared Tanzania's four-month benchmark but remained below the EAC's 4.5 months. Stronger exports and incomplete regional cover coexisted.

What to watch

What carries forward: whether the next official reserve print clears the EAC benchmark while preserving the stronger export record.

Rates

Interbank pricing ended near policy while the latest short bill stayed far below it

Signal

BoT's latest seven-day IBCM rate was 6.21% on 5 August, four basis points below the 6.25% CBR; the latest 91-day bill remained 3.3472%.

Why it matters

Near-term interbank pricing converged on policy, while the 91-day bill remained about 290bp below it on a different date. No new bill result reset the curve this week.

What to watch

What carries forward: the next official interbank observation and Treasury-bill result, kept as separate dated tests.

FX

The shilling ended modestly stronger across the week despite a small Friday reversal

Signal

BoT's USD/TZS mean fell 0.19% from 2,649.7472 on 31 July to 2,644.7918 on 7 August; Friday alone recorded a 0.03% rise.

Why it matters

The weekly direction marked modest shilling strengthening, while the last daily move went the other way. Neither interval implied a one-way currency break.

What to watch

What carries forward: whether the next official BoT sheets extend the Friday reversal or preserve the stronger Friday-to-Friday level.

The Ghost · edition context

The model-book allocation read

The Ghost's hypothetical TZS 500m model ledger ended at +8.40% since inception at its 7 Aug mark. Vodacom and the income sleeve added to the bridge while CRDB and Twiga Cement remained negative contributors; this is an allocation-record observation, not a trading signal.

Open the current Ghost tracker →

What this edition watched

  1. DSE breadth and turnover distribution

    Only six of 19 comparable counters rose, while NMB and CRDB supplied 85.4% of five-session turnover; the next closes test whether participation and value broaden.

    week of 10 Aug 2026

  2. Next official private-credit publication

    June private-credit growth accelerated to 28.1% from 23.2% in May; the next report tests persistence and sector distribution.

    next BoT Monthly Economic Review

  3. Next verified seven-day IBCM observation

    The latest verified rate was 6.21% on 5 August, four basis points below the 6.25% CBR.

    next BoT dashboard observation

  4. Next verified BoT Treasury-bill result

    Auction No. 1203 remains the latest verified result, with the 91-day weighted-average yield about 290bp below the CBR.

    date not announced

  5. Next official reserve and FX publications

    Import cover stood at 4.4 months and USD/TZS ended 0.19% lower Friday-to-Friday; the next records test each series on its own cadence.

    next BoT publications

Weekly edition; covers all five verified DSE sessions from Monday 3 August through Friday 7 August 2026 and is frozen to verified close (7 Aug 2026). Compiled from public sources for information and education only; not investment advice, a forecast or a recommendation. Equity, index, breadth and turnover figures reconcile to DSE authority files; the TZS 25.77bn weekly turnover is the sum of five verified session tapes, while Friday's TZS 5.26bn is explicitly one session inside that total. Rates and FX use Bank of Tanzania records; credit, inflation, reserves and exports use the July 2026 Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review published on 5 August. The current Wire hand-off was read first: its one primary-grade administrative candidate was deliberately omitted because it did not alter the week's verified market or macro evidence. A verified foreign-flow split and a same-source weekly gold return were unavailable and are not inferred. For live levels, see Markets.