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KCP.

Weekly visual edition · Vol. I · No. 227

The Weekly Brief

Saturday, 15 August 2026

A frozen reading of Tanzania's markets, capital and policy. Figures remain bound to their stated observations; this archive never inherits a newer market tape.

DSE All-Share

4,232.85

As at DSEI · 14 Aug close · latest verified

Tanzania Share Index

9,331.91

As at TSI · 14 Aug close · domestic board

USD / TZS

2,645.24

As at BoT mean · 15 Aug sheet

BoT rate

6.25%

As at CBR · Q3 2026

Inflation

4.2%

As at NBS · July 2026 headline

USD / TZS in this edition: BoT mean · 15 Aug sheet. Source: Bank of Tanzania daily rates ↗

This edition in 90 seconds

  1. 01Both indices rose, but five-session turnover still depended on a few names
  2. 02Both headline indices rose as Banks carried the strongest sector move
  3. 03TZS 30.05bn traded across five sessions, with one name taking 49% to 76% each day

The week in review

Both indices rose, but five-session turnover still depended on a few names

Signal

4,232.85 rose 1.18% Friday-to-Friday and 9,331.91 1.77%; five verified sessions carried TZS 30.05bn of equity turnover.

Why it matters

Thirteen of 28 comparable counters rose, while the top name absorbed 49% to 76% of turnover in every session.

What to watch

Whether next week's value broadens as NMB's subdivision timetable interrupts the normal tape.

The visual flagship · seven linked lenses

One week. One market story. Seven ways to test it.

Start with DSEI versus TSI, then test the money, breadth, rates, currency,hypothetical model-book terrain and household transmission chain. Every lens stays frozen to this edition's stated observations.

Did the domestic market and the headline index move together or apart over the covered quarter?

The domestic market against the headline index

As at 14 Aug 2026 · Source: Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange. Exact values and method remain in the static evidence table below.

02 · Turnover concentration

How much traded, and how much did one counter carry?

The week’s money had 5 very different shapes.

As at 2026-08-14
Source: Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange ↗

Session turnover Leading counter shareExplainTurnover concentrationShare of turnover in the leading counterTurnover concentration is the share of total traded value accounted for by one counter or a stated group of counters.How it is calculatedSelected counter turnover ÷ total session turnover × 100.What it does not meanA high share does not establish unusual demand, fair value or repeatable liquidity.Source or method: KCP calculation from DSE traded valueSee it in context →Open the full glossary →Definition only · information and education, not advice

30.05bn shillings traded across 5 sessions, but the darker segment shows why activity and breadth are different questions.

03 · Breadth map

Did the board move with the headline?

13 advanced. 7 declined. The index hid the split.

As at 2026-08-14
Source: DSE verified close history ↗

▲ 13 upExplainDirectional breadthShare of moving counters that advancedDirectional breadth is the share of counters with a price move that advanced rather than declined.How it is calculatedAdvancers ÷ (advancers + decliners). Unchanged and non-trading counters are excluded.What it does not meanIt is not the share of all listed counters, and it says nothing about how much money traded in each name.Source or method: KCP calculation from DSE close countsSee it in context →Open the full glossary →Definition only · information and education, not advice▼ 7 down= 8 unchanged

Only counters with a close inside the weekly window and a prior comparable close enter this map. Names without an in-window print are excluded, not labelled unchanged.

04 · Rates hurdle

What did safe local-currency paper yield?

The short end sat below policy; the 364-day point cleared it.

As at 2026-08-12
Source: Bank of Tanzania ↗

Central Bank Rate6.25%
2026-08-12
35 days2.13%
2026-08-12
91 days3.44%
2026-08-12
182 days5.18%
2026-08-12
364 days6.74%
2026-08-12

The comparison is a hurdle-rate lens, not a ranking or recommendation. Tenor, duration, liquidity and reinvestment remain different across the instruments shown.

05 · Local vs hard currency

What remained after translating the week through USD/TZS?

A softer shilling reduced, but did not erase; the index gains.

As at 2026-08-14
Source: DSE and Bank of Tanzania

DSEI

Local-currency index change+1.18%
Mechanical USD translation+1.17%

TSI

Local-currency index change+1.77%
Mechanical USD translation+1.75%

USD/TZS weakened 0.02% over the matched weekly window. The hard-currency line is (1 + local index change) ÷ (1 + FX change) − 1; it is an index translation, not an investable portfolio return, and excludes dividends, costs and tax.

06 · Ghost terrain impact

Which evidence changed the hypothetical model-book risk map?

The week changed the terrain, not the mandate.

As at 2026-08-14
Source: KCP Weekly Brief and stated public authorities

The Ghost is a hypothetical educational model book. This panel explains terrain impact on its model-book allocation; it is not a signal, instruction or recommendation.

07 · Cost-of-living chain

How can currency pressure travel toward the household basket?

Four clocks. One transmission chain. No forecast.

As at 2026-08-14
Source: BoT · EWURA · MIT · NBS

Each link keeps its own authority and observation clock. The layout shows plausible transmission channels; it does not claim that one observation caused the next.

Equities

Both headline indices rose as Banks carried the strongest sector move

Signal

4,232.85 rose 1.18% Friday-to-Friday and 9,331.91 1.77%; Banks gained 2.19%, Industrials 1.33% and Services 0.05%.

Why it matters

The domestic index outpaced the All-Share, while every published sector index ended higher.

What to watch

What carries forward: whether the next verified week preserves shared direction with wider value distribution.

Liquidity

TZS 30.05bn traded across five sessions, with one name taking 49% to 76% each day

Signal

Session turnover was TZS 9.75bn Monday, 3.96bn Tuesday, 4.83bn Wednesday, 4.26bn Thursday and 7.25bn Friday, totaling TZS 30.05bn.

Why it matters

CRDB led Monday; NMB led the other four sessions. No session's money map was broadly distributed.

What to watch

What carries forward: whether ordinary value spreads as NMB's scheduled trading interruption approaches.

Breadth

Thirteen counters rose across the week, but the board still spanned +11.29% to -13.83%

Signal

Friday-to-Friday, 13 of 28 comparable counters rose, seven fell and eight were unchanged; PAL led gains and MCB declines.

Why it matters

A positive index week still contained wide company dispersion and several unchanged price marks.

What to watch

What carries forward: whether the extremes persist with meaningful turnover or breadth consolidates near the middle.

Prices

July inflation held at 4.2%, with transport still the largest component reading

Signal

Headline inflation was 4.2% in July and core inflation 3.9%; transport was 13.8%, energy and utilities 6.9%, services 5.7% and food 4.1%.

Why it matters

The headline remained within the official medium-term range, but the component spread kept household and business cost pressure uneven.

What to watch

What carries forward: the 8 September CPI release will test whether transport pressure persists or broadens.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics · first seen 2026-08-11

Go deeper →

Rates

The latest bill curve rose from 2.13% at 35 days to 6.74% at 364 days

Signal

Auction No. 1204 cleared at 2.1276% for 35 days, 3.4390% for 91 days, 5.1803% for 182 days and 6.7441% for 364 days.

Why it matters

The 91-day yield was about 9bp above Auction No. 1203, while the 364-day yield was about 28bp lower; the curve remained upward sloping.

What to watch

What carries forward: the 19 August bond auction and 26 August bill auction provide the next official primary-market tests.

Corporate

Tanzania Breweries grew Q2 revenue 13% and operating profit 20%

Signal

TBL reported Q2 revenue of TZS 454.87bn, up 13% year-on-year, and operating profit of TZS 108.06bn, up 20%; EPS rose 6%.

Why it matters

Gross profit grew 26% and operating margin widened to 23.8% from 22.3%, while operating cash flow of TZS 153.65bn sat just below TZS 156.09bn of dividends paid.

What to watch

What carries forward: the full-year audited result is the next not-yet-dated test of revenue conversion, margin and cash generation.

Source: Tanzania Breweries Plc via DSE · first seen 2026-08-14

Go deeper →

External prices

The official USD/TZS mean was nearly flat while local gold rose 2.66%

Signal

The BoT USD/TZS mean moved from 2,644.79 on 7 August to 2,645.24 on 14 August, a 0.02% rise; Mining Commission world gold moved from USD 4,283 to USD 4,397 per ounce, up 2.66%.

Why it matters

The same-date comparison separates a nearly unchanged official exchange-rate mean from a larger move in the official local gold reference series.

What to watch

What carries forward: whether the next same-source observations preserve the gap without mixing providers or vintages.

The Ghost · edition context

The model-book allocation read

The Ghost's hypothetical TZS 500m model ledger ended at +9.21% since inception at its 14 Aug mark. NMB, Vodacom and the income sleeve led the positive contribution bridge while Twiga Cement remained negative; this is an educational allocation record, not a trading signal.

Open the current Ghost tracker →

What this edition watched

  1. DSE breadth and turnover distribution

    Thirteen of 28 comparable counters rose, but the leading name still absorbed 49% to 76% of every session's turnover; the next closes test whether value broadens.

    week of 17 Aug 2026

  2. NMB one-for-ten share subdivision

    19 August is the last cum-split date, trading is scheduled to pause on 20 to 21 August and subdivided shares are due to resume on 24 August; price continuity must be interpreted on the adjusted basis.

    19 to 24 Aug 2026

  3. BoT 15-year Treasury-bond auction

    The auction is the next official long-end price-discovery event after the week's upward-sloping bill curve.

    19 Aug 2026

  4. Next BoT Treasury-bill auction

    Auction No. 1204 put the curve from 2.1276% at 35 days to 6.7441% at 364 days; the next result tests the short end on the same official basis.

    26 Aug 2026

  5. Next NBS CPI release

    July headline inflation held at 4.2%, but transport inflation was 13.8%; the next release tests persistence and component breadth.

    8 Sep 2026

Weekly edition under Convention W. DSE market levels and company closes are frozen to the verified 14 August 2026 session. The TZS 30.05bn figure is the exact sum of the five verified session turnovers from 10 to 14 August; TZS 7.25bn is Friday's session-only turnover and is not described as a weekly aggregate. DSE is the authority for listed-market figures; NBS for CPI; Bank of Tanzania for FX, the CBR and government securities; Mining Commission for the cited gold series; and Tanzania Breweries Plc's DSE-filed statement for company results. The Wire hand-off was read first; it contained no primary-grade candidate, so no unverified Wire claim was promoted. No foreign-flow split is inferred. Information and education only; not investment advice, a recommendation, a trade instruction or a price target.