Chapter spine · the audit trail
KCP transformationThe Journey, in public.
Every model-book decision leaves a visible trail: evidence, rule, allocation, consequence and lesson.
The public audit trail
18 chapters. No erased decisions.
Newest first. Actions and deliberate non-actions share one ledger.
Four rose, one fell, and the book still lost money
Four of five equity holdings rose or held flat and the book still gave back about TSh 3.3m of market P&L; the NAV rose only because September savings landed, so hold and read the deposit apart from the return
The tenor was the problem, not the ladder
The 364-day rung pays a real yield where the 91-day does not, so the bill ladder returns one year out; equities got nothing for a second month
The measuring stick changed mid-week
Keep the allocation unchanged, report the split-adjusted holding outcomes and preserve the official DSEI and TSI weekly comparison as unavailable across the temporary discontinuity
Ten shares replaced one. The allocation did not change.
Apply the one-for-ten unit and cost-basis adjustment, withdraw the false mechanical loss, and leave the allocation unchanged
Four of five paid, and the front end finally printed
Breadth improved and four of five equity holdings paid, but the front end printed a narrower reward for duration; hold, and don't mistake a better week for a solved problem
Two banks carried 85% of the money
Two banks supplied 85.4% of the week's turnover and one holding 92% of the book's; study the concentration, and let the duration idea wait
Five rose, fourteen fell; and the book had its best week
Best week since inception, ~85% of it from one holding; examine the concentration, do not feed it
Where the month's 7m went; and the sleeve that got nothing
The bill ladder stopped paying a real yield; equities got nothing, by choice
A record with an asterisk, and the book holds
An all-time high on zero-volume marks and negative breadth; hold until the board confirms it
A narrow recovery, and the book holds
The index clawed back near its record on bank-led, negative-breadth strength; no drift to correct
A record cools, and the book still holds
The record cooled; the book still holds; no drift to correct
Holding into a record tape
Three record closes in a row; do nothing, on purpose
Where the month's 7m went; and the signals behind it
Feed the under-weight sleeves that had room
Opening a gold sleeve on the reserve-accumulation thesis
Open a small reserve-accumulation hedge
The Journey; the story so far.
Let the bank winners run rather than take the easy profit
Commodities
Set the gold rules before opening any position
The Journey; the story so far.
Patience in T-bills while waiting for a decision worth making
What The Ghost is; and isn't.
The premise, the mandate, and the rules it lives by