KCP visual investigation · first edition · 2026 Q3
This answer describes two Bank of Tanzania auction results. It does not identify a cause, forecast the next auction or recommend any security.
The reading method
Four checks before calling it a curve move
Use the two latest auctions with all four bill tenors present.
Subtract the prior weighted-average yield from the latest, tenor by tenor.
Check twelve consecutive complete-auction comparisons for persistence.
Keep bills and bonds in their own calendars and panels.
Test your read · answer before returning to the chart
Which tenor moved most in absolute basis points?
Choose one answerOne auction, read at three distances
Start with the latest curve, widen to consecutive auction changes, then place bills and bonds inside their own histories. Every view keeps the Bank of Tanzania auction vintage attached.
Short end: the 35-day and 91-day weighted-average yields fell by 29 and 10 basis points.
Middle: the 182-day yield moved the other way, rising 8 basis points.
One year: the 364-day yield eased 9 basis points to 7.03%.
01 · Latest auction
How did the Treasury-bill yield curve change between the two latest complete auctions?
Treasury-bill auction curve
Auction 1202 (2026-07-02) and 1203 (2026-07-15)
| Auction | Tenor | Yield, % p.a. |
|---|---|---|
| A1202 · 2 Jul | 35 days | 2.48 |
| A1203 · 15 Jul | 35 days | 2.19 |
| A1202 · 2 Jul | 91 days | 3.45 |
| A1203 · 15 Jul | 91 days | 3.35 |
| A1202 · 2 Jul | 182 days | 4.7 |
| A1203 · 15 Jul | 182 days | 4.78 |
| A1202 · 2 Jul | 364 days | 7.12 |
| A1203 · 15 Jul | 364 days | 7.03 |
Read: The move was not parallel: the 35-day and 91-day yields fell, the 182-day yield rose, and the 364-day yield eased by 9 basis points.
Which Treasury-bill tenors moved most at the latest auction?
Yield change by Treasury-bill tenor
Weighted-average yield · 2026-07-02 versus 2026-07-15
| Tenor | Previous, % | Latest, % | Change, bp |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 days | 2.48 | 2.19 | -29 |
| 91 days | 3.45 | 3.35 | -10 |
| 182 days | 4.7 | 4.78 | 8 |
| 364 days | 7.12 | 7.03 | -9 |
Read: The dumbbell view separates the direction and size of each tenor move; it does not collapse the auction into the 364-day result.
02 · Bill history
Did the latest tenor moves extend or interrupt their recorded paths?
Treasury-bill yields by tenor through time
Weighted-average yields · history shown from 2023-07-15 · missing auctions remain gaps
| Date | Tenor | Yield, % p.a. |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-09 | 35 days | 4.08 |
| 2023-08-23 | 35 days | 4.32 |
| 2023-09-13 | 35 days | 4.98 |
| 2023-11-08 | 35 days | 6.29 |
| 2024-01-31 | 35 days | 6.29 |
| 2024-02-14 | 35 days | 6.29 |
| 2024-03-13 | 35 days | 5.93 |
| 2024-03-27 | 35 days | 5.93 |
| 2025-01-15 | 35 days | 6.5 |
| 2025-03-12 | 35 days | 6.5 |
| 2025-04-09 | 35 days | 6.5 |
| 2025-04-23 | 35 days | 6.5 |
| 2025-08-13 | 35 days | 6.5 |
| 2025-08-27 | 35 days | 6.5 |
| 2025-09-17 | 35 days | 6.2 |
| 2025-10-08 | 35 days | 6.13 |
| 2025-10-22 | 35 days | 5.75 |
| 2025-11-05 | 35 days | 5.92 |
| 2025-11-19 | 35 days | 5.35 |
| 2025-12-03 | 35 days | 5.38 |
| 2026-01-07 | 35 days | 5.24 |
| 2026-01-21 | 35 days | 5.47 |
| 2026-02-11 | 35 days | 4.9 |
| 2026-02-25 | 35 days | 4.6 |
| 2026-03-11 | 35 days | 4.32 |
| 2026-03-25 | 35 days | 4.07 |
| 2026-04-08 | 35 days | 3.99 |
| 2026-04-22 | 35 days | 3.63 |
| 2026-05-06 | 35 days | 3.39 |
| 2026-05-20 | 35 days | 3.07 |
| 2026-06-03 | 35 days | 2.91 |
| 2026-06-17 | 35 days | 2.73 |
| 2026-07-02 | 35 days | 2.48 |
| 2026-07-15 | 35 days | 2.19 |
| 2023-08-09 | 91 days | 4.54 |
| 2023-08-23 | 91 days | 4.76 |
| 2023-09-13 | 91 days | 5.65 |
| 2023-09-27 | 91 days | 6.03 |
| 2023-10-25 | 91 days | 7.77 |
| 2023-11-08 | 91 days | 8.83 |
| 2023-12-20 | 91 days | 9.1 |
| 2024-01-31 | 91 days | 8.5 |
| 2024-02-14 | 91 days | 8.43 |
| 2024-03-13 | 91 days | 8.19 |
| 2024-03-27 | 91 days | 8.14 |
| 2024-04-24 | 91 days | 8.07 |
| 2024-07-24 | 91 days | 5.13 |
| 2024-09-18 | 91 days | 5.94 |
| 2024-12-24 | 91 days | 7.76 |
| 2025-02-12 | 91 days | 7.4 |
| 2025-02-26 | 91 days | 7.45 |
| 2025-04-09 | 91 days | 7.5 |
| 2025-04-23 | 91 days | 7.5 |
| 2025-07-23 | 91 days | 7.46 |
| 2025-08-13 | 91 days | 7.4 |
| 2025-08-27 | 91 days | 7.33 |
| 2025-09-17 | 91 days | 6.81 |
| 2025-10-08 | 91 days | 6.53 |
| 2025-10-22 | 91 days | 5.9 |
| 2025-11-05 | 91 days | 6.47 |
| 2025-11-19 | 91 days | 5.69 |
| 2025-12-03 | 91 days | 5.93 |
| 2026-01-07 | 91 days | 5.71 |
| 2026-01-21 | 91 days | 5.76 |
| 2026-02-11 | 91 days | 5.09 |
| 2026-02-25 | 91 days | 4.85 |
| 2026-03-11 | 91 days | 4.29 |
| 2026-03-25 | 91 days | 4.16 |
| 2026-04-08 | 91 days | 4.08 |
| 2026-04-22 | 91 days | 3.97 |
| 2026-05-06 | 91 days | 3.83 |
| 2026-05-20 | 91 days | 3.73 |
| 2026-06-03 | 91 days | 3.57 |
| 2026-06-17 | 91 days | 3.56 |
| 2026-07-02 | 91 days | 3.45 |
| 2026-07-15 | 91 days | 3.35 |
| 2023-07-26 | 182 days | 5.85 |
| 2023-08-09 | 182 days | 6.73 |
| 2023-08-23 | 182 days | 6.94 |
| 2023-09-13 | 182 days | 6.95 |
| 2023-09-27 | 182 days | 7.34 |
| 2023-10-11 | 182 days | 7.56 |
| 2023-11-08 | 182 days | 8.56 |
| 2023-11-22 | 182 days | 8.9 |
| 2023-12-20 | 182 days | 9.4 |
| 2024-01-31 | 182 days | 9.3 |
| 2024-02-14 | 182 days | 8.97 |
| 2024-02-28 | 182 days | 8.9 |
| 2024-03-13 | 182 days | 8.65 |
| 2024-03-27 | 182 days | 8.57 |
| 2024-04-24 | 182 days | 8.45 |
| 2024-05-29 | 182 days | 7.99 |
| 2024-06-12 | 182 days | 6.57 |
| 2024-08-28 | 182 days | 7.3 |
| 2024-10-09 | 182 days | 8.17 |
| 2024-11-06 | 182 days | 8.25 |
| 2024-11-20 | 182 days | 8.35 |
| 2024-12-24 | 182 days | 8.27 |
| 2025-01-15 | 182 days | 8.13 |
| 2025-01-29 | 182 days | 8.26 |
| 2025-04-09 | 182 days | 8.47 |
| 2025-04-23 | 182 days | 8.47 |
| 2025-05-14 | 182 days | 8.33 |
| 2025-05-28 | 182 days | 8.14 |
| 2025-08-13 | 182 days | 7.85 |
| 2025-08-27 | 182 days | 7.08 |
| 2025-09-17 | 182 days | 6.56 |
| 2025-10-08 | 182 days | 6.81 |
| 2025-10-22 | 182 days | 6 |
| 2025-11-05 | 182 days | 5.97 |
| 2025-11-19 | 182 days | 5.87 |
| 2025-12-03 | 182 days | 5.91 |
| 2026-01-07 | 182 days | 5.82 |
| 2026-01-21 | 182 days | 5.89 |
| 2026-02-11 | 182 days | 5.95 |
| 2026-02-25 | 182 days | 5.75 |
| 2026-03-11 | 182 days | 5.59 |
| 2026-03-25 | 182 days | 5.78 |
| 2026-04-08 | 182 days | 5.57 |
| 2026-04-22 | 182 days | 5.36 |
| 2026-05-06 | 182 days | 5.27 |
| 2026-05-20 | 182 days | 5.19 |
| 2026-06-03 | 182 days | 5.04 |
| 2026-06-17 | 182 days | 4.92 |
| 2026-07-02 | 182 days | 4.7 |
| 2026-07-15 | 182 days | 4.78 |
| 2023-07-26 | 364 days | 6.97 |
| 2023-08-09 | 364 days | 6.93 |
| 2023-08-23 | 364 days | 7.13 |
| 2023-09-13 | 364 days | 7.32 |
| 2023-09-27 | 364 days | 8.11 |
| 2023-10-11 | 364 days | 8.63 |
| 2023-10-25 | 364 days | 8.83 |
| 2023-11-08 | 364 days | 9.28 |
| 2023-11-22 | 364 days | 9.71 |
| 2023-12-06 | 364 days | 10 |
| 2023-12-20 | 364 days | 11.03 |
| 2024-01-03 | 364 days | 11.41 |
| 2024-01-17 | 364 days | 11.81 |
| 2024-01-31 | 364 days | 12.22 |
| 2024-02-14 | 364 days | 12.2 |
| 2024-02-28 | 364 days | 12.3 |
| 2024-03-13 | 364 days | 12.07 |
| 2024-03-27 | 364 days | 11.57 |
| 2024-04-08 | 364 days | 10.81 |
| 2024-04-24 | 364 days | 9.96 |
| 2024-05-08 | 364 days | 8.61 |
| 2024-05-29 | 364 days | 7.04 |
| 2024-06-12 | 364 days | 6.75 |
| 2024-07-10 | 364 days | 8.41 |
| 2024-07-24 | 364 days | 9.28 |
| 2024-08-14 | 364 days | 10.43 |
| 2024-08-28 | 364 days | 10.83 |
| 2024-09-18 | 364 days | 10.98 |
| 2024-10-09 | 364 days | 11.19 |
| 2024-10-23 | 364 days | 12.13 |
| 2024-11-06 | 364 days | 12.78 |
| 2024-11-20 | 364 days | 12.79 |
| 2024-12-04 | 364 days | 12.95 |
| 2024-12-24 | 364 days | 12.99 |
| 2025-01-15 | 364 days | 12.78 |
| 2025-01-29 | 364 days | 12.48 |
| 2025-02-12 | 364 days | 12.25 |
| 2025-02-26 | 364 days | 11.72 |
| 2025-03-12 | 364 days | 10.75 |
| 2025-03-26 | 364 days | 9.48 |
| 2025-04-09 | 364 days | 8.93 |
| 2025-04-23 | 364 days | 8.91 |
| 2025-05-14 | 364 days | 9.13 |
| 2025-05-28 | 364 days | 8.72 |
| 2025-07-02 | 364 days | 8.42 |
| 2025-07-23 | 364 days | 7.85 |
| 2025-08-13 | 364 days | 6.92 |
| 2025-08-27 | 364 days | 6.66 |
| 2025-09-17 | 364 days | 5.99 |
| 2025-10-08 | 364 days | 5.61 |
| 2025-10-22 | 364 days | 6.3 |
| 2025-11-05 | 364 days | 6.55 |
| 2025-11-19 | 364 days | 6.35 |
| 2025-12-03 | 364 days | 6.24 |
| 2026-01-07 | 364 days | 6.19 |
| 2026-01-21 | 364 days | 6.23 |
| 2026-02-11 | 364 days | 6.23 |
| 2026-02-25 | 364 days | 6.17 |
| 2026-03-11 | 364 days | 6.4 |
| 2026-03-25 | 364 days | 5.2 |
| 2026-04-08 | 364 days | 5.78 |
| 2026-04-22 | 364 days | 5.66 |
| 2026-05-06 | 364 days | 5.68 |
| 2026-05-20 | 364 days | 5.58 |
| 2026-06-03 | 364 days | 6.38 |
| 2026-06-17 | 364 days | 6.92 |
| 2026-07-02 | 364 days | 7.12 |
| 2026-07-15 | 364 days | 7.03 |
Read: A shared scale makes the separation between short and long bill tenors comparable without forcing missing tenor auctions into the line.
The auction calendar is rolling: not every tenor appears at every auction.
Were recent Treasury-bill moves broad, persistent or isolated by tenor?
Auction-to-auction yield changes
Basis-point change between consecutive complete auctions · latest 12 comparisons
| Auction | Date | Tenor | Change, bp |
|---|---|---|---|
| A1192 | 2026-02-11 | 35d | -57 |
| A1192 | 2026-02-11 | 91d | -67 |
| A1192 | 2026-02-11 | 182d | 6 |
| A1192 | 2026-02-11 | 364d | 0 |
| A1193 | 2026-02-25 | 35d | -30 |
| A1193 | 2026-02-25 | 91d | -24 |
| A1193 | 2026-02-25 | 182d | -20 |
| A1193 | 2026-02-25 | 364d | -6 |
| A1194 | 2026-03-11 | 35d | -28 |
| A1194 | 2026-03-11 | 91d | -56 |
| A1194 | 2026-03-11 | 182d | -16 |
| A1194 | 2026-03-11 | 364d | 23 |
| A1195 | 2026-03-25 | 35d | -25 |
| A1195 | 2026-03-25 | 91d | -13 |
| A1195 | 2026-03-25 | 182d | 19 |
| A1195 | 2026-03-25 | 364d | -120 |
| A1196 | 2026-04-08 | 35d | -8 |
| A1196 | 2026-04-08 | 91d | -8 |
| A1196 | 2026-04-08 | 182d | -21 |
| A1196 | 2026-04-08 | 364d | 58 |
| A1197 | 2026-04-22 | 35d | -36 |
| A1197 | 2026-04-22 | 91d | -11 |
| A1197 | 2026-04-22 | 182d | -21 |
| A1197 | 2026-04-22 | 364d | -12 |
| A1198 | 2026-05-06 | 35d | -24 |
| A1198 | 2026-05-06 | 91d | -14 |
| A1198 | 2026-05-06 | 182d | -9 |
| A1198 | 2026-05-06 | 364d | 2 |
| A1199 | 2026-05-20 | 35d | -32 |
| A1199 | 2026-05-20 | 91d | -10 |
| A1199 | 2026-05-20 | 182d | -8 |
| A1199 | 2026-05-20 | 364d | -10 |
| A1200 | 2026-06-03 | 35d | -16 |
| A1200 | 2026-06-03 | 91d | -16 |
| A1200 | 2026-06-03 | 182d | -15 |
| A1200 | 2026-06-03 | 364d | 80 |
| A1201 | 2026-06-17 | 35d | -18 |
| A1201 | 2026-06-17 | 91d | -1 |
| A1201 | 2026-06-17 | 182d | -12 |
| A1201 | 2026-06-17 | 364d | 54 |
| A1202 | 2026-07-02 | 35d | -25 |
| A1202 | 2026-07-02 | 91d | -11 |
| A1202 | 2026-07-02 | 182d | -22 |
| A1202 | 2026-07-02 | 364d | 20 |
| A1203 | 2026-07-15 | 35d | -29 |
| A1203 | 2026-07-15 | 91d | -10 |
| A1203 | 2026-07-15 | 182d | 8 |
| A1203 | 2026-07-15 | 364d | -9 |
Read: The matrix shows whether a move repeats across auctions and tenors instead of elevating one latest print into a trend.
03 · Long-dated auctions
How have published long-dated government yields moved within each auction tenor?
Treasury-bond auction yields by tenor
Weighted-average yield to maturity · 2023-07-22 to 2026-07-22 · panels share one scale
| Date | Tenor | Yield to maturity, % |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-06 | 2-year | 9.59 |
| 2023-11-15 | 2-year | 11.64 |
| 2024-01-10 | 2-year | 12.14 |
| 2025-02-05 | 2-year | 12.55 |
| 2025-04-16 | 2-year | 12.08 |
| 2025-07-09 | 2-year | 12.17 |
| 2025-10-15 | 2-year | 10.05 |
| 2026-03-04 | 2-year | 8.36 |
| 2023-08-02 | 5-year | 10.09 |
| 2023-10-18 | 5-year | 10.45 |
| 2024-07-17 | 5-year | 13.87 |
| 2024-10-16 | 5-year | 12.41 |
| 2025-03-19 | 5-year | 13.14 |
| 2025-05-21 | 5-year | 12.94 |
| 2025-07-16 | 5-year | 13.18 |
| 2025-09-10 | 5-year | 12.48 |
| 2025-11-26 | 5-year | 10.54 |
| 2026-04-29 | 5-year | 9.54 |
| 2023-08-30 | 10-year | 11.51 |
| 2023-10-04 | 10-year | 11.88 |
| 2023-12-13 | 10-year | 11.85 |
| 2024-01-24 | 10-year | 12.03 |
| 2024-04-17 | 10-year | 12.3 |
| 2024-05-15 | 10-year | 15.4 |
| 2024-08-07 | 10-year | 13.26 |
| 2024-12-11 | 10-year | 15.4 |
| 2025-01-22 | 10-year | 14.08 |
| 2025-04-30 | 10-year | 14.26 |
| 2025-07-30 | 10-year | 13.74 |
| 2025-10-01 | 10-year | 12.45 |
| 2026-01-14 | 10-year | 11.3 |
| 2026-04-15 | 10-year | 9.4 |
| 2026-06-10 | 10-year | 10.39 |
| 2023-09-20 | 15-year | 12.34 |
| 2023-11-29 | 15-year | 12.75 |
| 2024-02-07 | 15-year | 13.66 |
| 2024-05-22 | 15-year | 15.16 |
| 2024-07-03 | 15-year | 15.05 |
| 2024-09-11 | 15-year | 15.35 |
| 2024-10-02 | 15-year | 15.76 |
| 2025-03-05 | 15-year | 14.63 |
| 2025-06-25 | 15-year | 14.59 |
| 2025-08-20 | 15-year | 13.91 |
| 2025-11-12 | 15-year | 12.08 |
| 2026-02-18 | 15-year | 10.78 |
| 2026-05-13 | 15-year | 10.39 |
| 2023-11-01 | 20-year | 13.51 |
| 2024-02-21 | 20-year | 15.83 |
| 2024-03-20 | 20-year | 15.51 |
| 2024-04-30 | 20-year | 15.24 |
| 2024-06-05 | 20-year | 15.13 |
| 2024-07-31 | 20-year | 15.17 |
| 2024-08-21 | 20-year | 15.4 |
| 2024-09-25 | 20-year | 15.45 |
| 2024-10-30 | 20-year | 15.76 |
| 2024-11-26 | 20-year | 15.64 |
| 2024-12-18 | 20-year | 15.71 |
| 2025-02-19 | 20-year | 15.28 |
| 2025-04-03 | 20-year | 15.11 |
| 2025-06-18 | 20-year | 14.5 |
| 2025-09-03 | 20-year | 13.55 |
| 2025-12-17 | 20-year | 12.02 |
| 2026-03-18 | 20-year | 10.71 |
| 2026-05-28 | 20-year | 10.43 |
| 2026-07-08 | 20-year | 11.33 |
| 2023-08-16 | 25-year | 13.81 |
| 2023-12-27 | 25-year | 14.39 |
| 2024-03-06 | 25-year | 16.79 |
| 2024-04-03 | 25-year | 16.13 |
| 2024-06-19 | 25-year | 15.38 |
| 2024-09-04 | 25-year | 15.42 |
| 2024-11-13 | 25-year | 15.93 |
| 2025-01-08 | 25-year | 15.84 |
| 2025-05-07 | 25-year | 15.29 |
| 2025-06-04 | 25-year | 14.8 |
| 2025-08-06 | 25-year | 14.42 |
| 2025-09-24 | 25-year | 13.19 |
| 2026-02-04 | 25-year | 11.99 |
| 2026-06-24 | 25-year | 11.89 |
Read: Panel separation preserves each tenor’s auction calendar while the shared scale keeps their levels comparable.
History-window omission: 7-year had no observation inside the displayed three-year window.
Test your read · answer before returning to the chart
Which tenor moved in the opposite direction to the other three?
Choose one answerCounter-view
What would make this reading too strong?
One auction can reflect tenor-specific bid composition. A non-parallel move in one pair of auctions is a verified observation, but not yet a durable regime. Bill and bond tenors also follow different auction calendars, so the long-dated panels supply context rather than a same-day extension of the bill curve.
Revision box · first edition
This is the first flagship edition, so there is no prior narrative to revise. Future editions will state changed source values, changed methods and changed conclusions separately. Chart citations already carry deterministic VDS edition identifiers.
Open the public revision log →What to watch
Public observations that can update the answer
The next complete Treasury-bill auction, whether the 182-day divergence repeats, and whether consecutive-auction changes become broad across tenors. These are monitoring questions, not trade signals.
Methods and reuse
Every view travels with its evidence
Source: Bank of Tanzania — bot.go.tz/TBills & /TBonds ↗. Weighted-average yields are shown as published. Basis-point change equals (latest − prior) × 100. Missing auction tenors remain absent. Use each chart’s Source, Cite, Share and Download controls for its exact vintage and view.