Were opposite model-sleeve movements observed in the same intervals?

Yes. Opposite movements occurred more often than same-direction movements in this short record. This does not establish dependable protection against losses.

Joint directions across recorded intervals

12 Oct 2026 to 20 Oct 2026

Recorded intervals, count

Same active direction1

Opposite directions4

One unchanged0

Both unchanged0

KCP hypothetical model, exact common recorded marks. Direction counts are not returns or whole-book attribution.

Inspect the recorded path

Equity sleeve ↗Fixed income ↗

Inspect a recorded session20 Oct 2026: equity 98.60; fixed income 100.21.

Lines joined recorded observations. No missing values were filled. This window was not the day’s return.

Recorded observations

Sleeve indices from the common baseline
Date	Equity	Fixed income
12 Oct	100.00	100.00
13 Oct	99.25	100.02
15 Oct	98.83	100.08
16 Oct	99.32	100.11
19 Oct	98.93	100.19
20 Oct	98.60	100.21

Compare both changes over the same pair of recorded dates. Keep unchanged observations separate from opposite movements. These counts describe a hypothetical model, not market correlation, a reliable hedge or whole-book contribution.

Opposite interval movements

Opposite interval movements / Mwendo wa pande tofauti katika kipindi kimoja
Opposite movements occur when one recorded model sleeve rises and the other falls across the same two dates. Counts do not measure the size of changes or contributions to the whole book.

Source: the Ghost tracker for the closing date. Each sleeve was divided by its own exact first observation in this window and rebased to a shared starting point. The comparison established neither a trade, a causal explanation nor whole-book attribution.

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Closing-session evidence20 Oct 2026 / DSE

What sat behind the equity headline

Shared historical comparison: 18. 22 Sep 2026 to 16 Oct 2026.

Leading counter’s turnover share

Moved lower in the historical range

19 Oct 2026: 44.91%3/18 below
20 Oct 2026: 41.49%2/18 below

Position counts historical observations strictly below each record. It does not measure the size of the change; equal values do not count as lower.

Advancing share of traded movers

Moved higher in the historical range

19 Oct 2026: 26.67%1/18 below
20 Oct 2026: 37.50%5/18 below

Position counts historical observations strictly below each record. It does not measure the size of the change; equal values do not count as lower.

None belowHalf belowAll below

Source and method

Source: After the Bell. Position shows the share of prior observations strictly below the close, not the size of the difference. Both measures and both displayed dates used the same complete cohort. Both displayed dates were excluded when a prior comparison was available. Ties counted in the denominator but not as lower observations. This held sample was not the full available archive.

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